Continuing my analysis of UP elections from here, the 4 major parties of Uttar Pradesh tried to capitalize on their strengths as I predicted in the SWOT, several months back. However in doing so, they ignored various opportunities presented before them and also ignored their as well as opponent's weakness. Summarizing how the events unfolded in the past few months.
The 4th Pillar experiment - Congress would never expect to win a full majority in UP, especially with no credible CM face and even more especially with the Gandhis at the helm. However they had additional stake, their plan was/is not to win the power in the state but stop BJP from getting it as the remaining parties BSP/SP have repeatedly supported it in the past during times of stress trust Vote. However to dent BJP, Congress would have to showcase itself as a strong 4th poll, so as to dent the chunk of UC (particularly Brahmin voters), not enough for it to win, but enough to make BJP lose across many seats. Congress appointed 'star campaigner' Prashant Kishore and also nominated popular, former Delhi CM as Brahmin face. On paper it looked good to get votes of Old Brahmins, traditional minority and Dalit voters of Congress and it looked like that the Congress might get back to double digit vote share and dent BJP in atleast a 100 seats.
The Brahmin Coup - Ever since 2013, there hasn't been an election where BJP surrendered to Congress. BJP has been beaten only by other regional parties since 2013. So as in all other Post 2013 cases, the Brahmin Lao strategy of Congress was expected to fall flat and it fell deeper than the abyss. BJP's heist ensured that the most popular Brahmin faces the Congress ever had were no longer part of it. Gandhi family loyalist Rita Joshi Bahuguna, and ND Tiwari were grabbed from Congress. These leaders won't add much value to BJP but definitely puncture Congress. Scores of tier 3 brahmin leaders from Congress, BSP influxed to the BJP making it the sole choice of Brahmins who form 10% voter base. Congress alliance with SP has ensured that it would struggle to get remaining Brahmin votes which hitherto had been an old loyal votebank since Chacha Nehru days.. BJP delivered a punch to Congress' core strategy of wooing Brahmins.
The Surgical Strike - One of the top 3 most important reasons why Nitish Kumar was able to reverse the early NDA winning trend was that he took Narendra Modi head on. His punch lines proved t be more lethal and between the 2 negative campaigns, his was the more effective. He was successful in showing Narendra Modi as a talking lion. He coined the word 'Jumla Babu' (man with no action but only words). He successfully raised suspicion on people's minds and many of them started asking about 15 lakhs black money in their accounts, many others would ask about the Dal prices at Rs 230/kg. The surgical stike against terror camps in POK rebranded Narendra Modi as a strong leader. Over 90% across India and 80% in UP backed this 'bold move'. This move alone boosted Brand Modi back to pre 2014 levels, thus leaving little room for his opponents. They were/are left in a state where both supporting and opposing this move would harm them.
The Carpet Bombing - Demonetization move in the November was nothing short of a shock Carpet Bombing. The aim was to get profit of Rs 3 to 4 lakh crores by rendering existing black currency as useless. The move would hamper individual residents across the country for the 1st 50 days but the profit cash of Rs 4 lakh crores would compensate the poor and the honest middle class voters through direct cash and tax benefits respectively. Lives were at standstill for the 1st 50 days and things normalized after that. However the much hyped cash surplus never came to the govt coffers as earlier estimated. The Govt.brought various micro checks during the process to counter the theft by Black Money hoarders but it seems that in the end, the latter prevailed. The actual cash surplus could be anywhere between Rs 40 thousand crores to Rs 1.6 lakh crores (as reported by different sections of Media). Whatever be the case of cash collection, the aam junta perceived this as a war against corruption and hence, despite difficulties supported this move. It is difficult to say for how long, the government would enjoy this sort of support. Things have normalized however there is no clarity on the benefits which the people would get for enduring those difficulties for 50 long days. If the govt presents a favourable budget on Feb 1 , 2017, the support would not dwindle as feared. However no announcement of compensation might turn a path breaking initiative to a risky, damaging event
The Old Messiah of Media - Each election, an influential section of Media (Lutyens gang), picks up, backs and campaigns for a candidate who they feel might be the best placed to defeat Narendra Modi. Kejrial, Lalu, Nitish, Mamta, basically anyone who subscribes to their divisive 'idea of India'. The gang was earlier backing Mayawati to destroy the neo Socialist party BJP. One would sympathize with the way Mayawati was tricked into this by the mafia. She was lured into stitching a non existent (but formidable on paper) alliance of Dalit-Muslims, who together form slightly above 40% of the voters. with some of the other backward caste voters and a few loyal Brahmin votes and seemingly become invincible in even a 2 pole race with approximately 45% of votes. Serious influx of strong leaders to BJP and the demonetization, destroyed Mayawati's campaign. There wasn't enough money to run a campaign at the same scale of coffer filled BJP and SP (who are in power at the centre and the state respectively). As a part of of her Dalit-Muslim strategy Mayawati gave more than 25% tickets to muslims, thereby substantially polarizing the elections. Mayawati was misled to believe that a volatile alliance of dlait-Muslims would lead her to the power. Such a social coalition was simply not possible for the simple reason that since pre independence days, any type of communal riots or genocides across the Indian sub continent has 1 definite outcome, the destruction of families and houses of Dalit masses as they bear the maximum brunt of Militant, aggressive communal rioters. A social coalition of Muslim and Dalits for power seemed like a friendship between a pack of wolves and a herd of deers to have lunch. Demonetization proved to be the final nail and Mayawati's campaign was torn apart.
The New Messiah of Media - Post demonetization, he Mafia started to project a new Hero. All of a sudden, Akhilesh Yadav who was leading a 'corrupt', inefficient regime and was branded a Gundaraj party suddenly became a development icon and Youth King. All of a sudden 100s of crimes against women, law and order issues vanished in thin air and the Lucknow-Agra expressway became the symbol of Akhilesh's development icon. The media mafia started to back Akhilesh since November 2016 for their usual Anti Modi protagonist role. After the unceremonious sacking of Mayawati, the Netaji junior sddenly became so great that the Mafia even discarded its one time hero, Mullayam Singh Yadav, wo attained this hero worship, since he opened fire on Pro Ram temple activists. The mafia played the inconsequential father-son fight (possibly staged) and showcased Akhilesh as a hero in the duel. ANother reason why Akhilesh was chosen and replaced ahead of Maya was his cosyness with perpetual Messiah Rahul Gandhi, for SP was all set to ally with Congress to keep the 'communal forces' at bay. Over the weeks the media mafia would project a backward, crime infested, migration prone Uttar Pradesh as more developed than the Western Europe and would do all to seal the deal. BJP won the war against media in 2014 but lost critical battles of 2015 (Delhi and Bihar). This battle, which is more critical than both Bihar delhi combined, could also be influenced by this powerful section of Media
The Mahagathbandhan - SP-Congress alliance is all but a formality now. With RLD and some other bit players like JDU, RJD, Peace Party all set to join. Is this mahagathbandhan as powerful as the one in Bihar? Purely based on 2014 arithmetic, the mahagathbandhan lags behind considerably. Talking of Mahagathbandhan, there were 2 other grand alliances, 1 in West Bengal 2016 and the other in Tamil Nadu 2016. All 3 had Congress as the common ally in the grand alliance. The green front was lucky in Bihar but failed miserably in the remaining 2 states. UP grand alliance has similarities to all the 3 Grand alliances.
Similarity with Bihar
1. BJP has no CM face, incumbent CM face is more popular than any regional BJP leader
2. BJP MPs of UP have hardly any work to show for to win people's support with some MPs even speaking against the party
Similarity with West Bengal
1. Grand Alliance partners are a marginalized entities.
2. The fight is more multi cornered as in West Bengal as compared to Bihar
Similarity with Tamil Nadu
1. Uttar Pradesh is more like Tamil Nadu in dealing with incumbent governments
2. Congress on a decline with no captive votebank as in Bihar/West Bengal
The Arithmetic - Since May 2014, BJP has lost anywhere between 4 to 10% in the state assemblies (with states over 100 assembly seats or above 10 Lok Sabha seats). Should this trend continue the party would secure atleast 33.5% of votes which should normally be enough for a thumping win in a 3 way fight. However with the fight becoming more and more 2 and a half way, the winner must need more than 36% votes to win through. So far Brahmins (10%) and dominant OBCs except Yadavas like Kurmis, Koeris, Lodhs, Kushwahas and Mauryas, Rajbahars (18%) are firmly with BJP. Yadavas and Muslims (28%) on the other hand are firmly with the Congress-SP-RLD grand alliance. The Rajputs (8%) and the Jats (2%) are evenly split between BJP and the grand alliance. BSP onky has assured votbank of Jatavas (12%). SO the BJP and alliance start with a firm edge of 33% compared to BSP's 12%. Ofcourse the degree of poalrization of these voting blocs and their actual turnout would change the equation a bit, the major balance of power lies with smaller OBC groups, smaller SC groups and smaller UC groups, who together form 22%. These small swing voters would ultimately determine who the winner is.
The Outcome - As of now, pragmatic rationalism suggests that irrespective of the alliance BJP is most suited to win the UP polls. The outcome is an assessment of numbers and trends. Actual results may wary depending on a lot of factors on a real time basis. However at the moment, the most likely outcome is below.
BJP 203 (36.5%)
SP 113 (22.5%)
Congress 37 (8%)
RLD 7 (2%)
BSP 35 (17%)
Others 8 (14%)
