Why BJP is still the favorite to win Bihar 2015?

Media is buzzing with rumours that BJP campaign in Bihar has faltered and the Mahagathbandhan is on its way to victory after the 1^st 2 phases.  For the analysis sake, let’s assume that in the worst case scenario NDA might win 30 seats, MGB 50 and 1 seat is won by others/independents. This gap is huge and if one were to extrapolate this, it transforms into a big victory for MGB. However that is not the case. Each region in Bihar votes differently and has different issues. Minorities are more concentrated in the seats which would go to polls in the 5^th phase, whereas phase3 and 4 which lie mostly in the Tirhut, Bhojpur and Magadh belt, does not have as high minority population, so MGB does not start with any distinct advantage. If one goes by the Lok Sabha number, BJP led NDA led in approximately 60 out of the 105 seats which are going into the polls in the next 2 phases. This lead was considerably high, even when compared to the combined figure of JDU and RJD-Congress. Following factors would swell this lead even more.

Manjhi – Manjhi has emerged as a Pan Bihar leader of Mahadalits (who account for 10% voters of Bihar). It was believed that majority of Mahadalits who support Manjhi voted for JDU in 2014, so any vote which Manjhi brings, is at the cost of JDU. His effect was highest in Central Bihar or the Magadh region; however even in the remaining phases, Manjhi could bring 2-2.5 % of Mussahar (Mahadalit) voters to the NDA fold. Since all of it would be at the expense of JDU, a 2 to 2.5% voteshare would result in an effective 4 to 5% swing in these 105 seats where BJP was already leading in about 60 seats, even after combined voteshare of Janta allies from the 2014 data.

Vikas-Jungle Raj paradox – Lalu has made many regressive comments and even though while his voters have consolidated behind Nitish, Nitish’s voters (except for those who would vote on caste basis), would not be inclined to vote for Lalu. A recent study by survey agency CSDS-Lokniti says that 1/3^rd of Nitish voters were wary of voting for Lalu. Assuming that Nitish’s party is fighting in only 101 seats and remaining 142 by allies, it is safe to assume that 1/3rd of Nitish’s voters (pre dominantly those who are impressed with his pro development image) would not vote for Lalu or Congress in these seats. This 1/3rd of votes comes to around 2.63% which again translates to a huge swing of more than 5.5% in these 105 seats. (Nitish had almost 16% votes in Lok Sabha, assuming Manjhi took away 2.5%. Of the remaining 13.5%, 7.89% would be on those seats where RJD-Congress are fighting). Hence it is safe to assume that BJP and its allies will make mincemeat of RJD and Congress and even JDU because JDU is not really strong north of the Ganges

Anti MY consolidation – A talk of MY consolidation is already felt on ground. Recent events of RJD workers beating up workers from EBC and Dalit communities for voting to BJP has ensured that weaker voters do not express their choices. A fear of Jungle Raj would ensure that these voters consolidate in favour of BJP and its allies.

Hence it is safe to assume that the number of seats which NDA should win out of this 105 in the next 2 phases will be 80 in the worst case scenario, taking into consideration all the above factors and swings. With 30 seats (minimum value) in 1st to phases, it makes to 110. Hence NDA just needs to win 12 more out of the 57 seats in the final phase to form the government. 5tth Phase is supposedly a weak area for BJP but with cities like Madhubani, Darbhanga, Katihar, Purnea and the effect of Pappu Yadav in that area, BJP is expected to win a minimum 16 of those 57, propelling it to 126, 4 ahead of the magic figure.

Punters prediction – Punters are backing BJP led alliance to win this election and even after the 1^st 2 phases, their bets are with BJP. Given the past record, punters have been successful in picking out the winners accurately more than 90% of times. Going by their track record, chances of BJP winning these elections are 9 times higher than it losing.

Overrated issues

Bhagwat’s reservation – It would do some damage but not enough to propel Nitish to victory. Even during Lok Sabha, BJP leader CP Thakur talked about ending reservation but it did not damage BJP’s prospects even in a minute way. For an average Bihari, Thakur is far more popular thann Bhagwat and hence damage due to the comments, even if they have done some damage, seem to be exaggerated

No face for CM – With Narendra Modi as face, BJP appeals more to the EBC
voters, who would ultimately provide the decisive push to the winning alliance
with over 21% votes in the state

Negative politics – Lalu is a polarizing figure. Attacking him could mean BJP would lose out on 20-25% Yadav votes (Rest ~70% Yadavs would go with Lalu anyways as per the historical polling data) but this Jungle Raj paranoia would help them consolidate the rest of EBC voters, who are over 21% in the state. Hence it was always about losing 2-3% Yadav votes to aim for 15-20% of EBC voters

Beef controversy – This has affected BJP to an extent but the damage has been neutralized by Lalu’s self-goal comments on beef. It was evident by his frustration post the comments. Various ground reports from Yadav dominated Madhubani, Hajipur (district where Lalu’s both sons are fighting), Gopalganj etc point to this.

Whatever be the case, it appears that concerted efforts are being carried out by large sections of Indian Media to show that BJP has already lost the election, probably to influence the voters. Sudden bursts of ‘Dalits under attack in BJP ruled Haryana’, ‘Liberty under threat’ appear to be a part of this campaign. While more than 2/3^rd of the seats are still to undergo polling, naysayers have already written off winning chances of BJP. Will they eat humble pie yet again like in 2014 and in numerous instances before and after that or will they prevail, like they prevailed in Delhi 2015? Only time will tell. Come 8^th November, one of the most important elections in the Indian history will mend and break many hearts. Without doubt, this election is one of the most important, more than even the Lok Sabha 2014 as it will set many trends irrespective of which side the result falls.

How Media's lies created Anti Modi perception in the first bout

Earlier in February this year, a retired old Kannada gentleman who had been voting the BJP for over 3 decades was not a BJP fan anymore. When I asked him of his agony in such a short span of time (BJP had been in power for a little over 7 months then), his response was that PM Modi, who he held very high in regards was silent on key issues like; Gharwapasi, attacks on churches, frequent trips to abroad, his expensive 10 lakhs suit etc. I was surprised not because he was angry with Modi govt. but because the so called 'prominent' issues which he mentioned, were not at all prominent as these were non existent and unheard issues. There can be some valid criticism of Modi govt. but none of those propagated by Media are valid. During the 2nd world war, Nazis had formulated this theory: "Speak a lie a 1000 times and it becomes the truth" and our commies back home have mastered this art. Indian Media, which is dominated by Commies have used this art to perfection.

In this blog i will not talk about what are the prominent lies which media has propagated, especially in the last 14 months. This has been covered extensively and exposed by many. I will cover the more important 'how they do it' part'.

1. Pre Emptive Strikes - This is more of a praise than a blame. Media Trolls (or celebrities) have been vociferous in creating noises for issues, even before it has happened. Do remember all the fear mongering before 2014 elections about Modi being anti minority and him being an executioner. This has continued and infact multiplied after Modi took power. These Trolls would create sufficient noise and give ample coverage to ensure that the actual issue never takes place. For example, filling of important govt. posts by RSS functionaries. This noise was being created from Day 1, even when there was no evidence that there had been a systematic inclusion of Right wing intellectuals to important posts. Same went for Media's so called freedom. The attack on churches was a malicious attempt to paint the govt. with an Anti Minority brush and show that Christians were being persecuted. Although there has been not a single religion or faith based attack on any christian. So Indian media has successfully executed this pre emptive strike strategy
2. Fake Propaganda - Modi wore a 10 lakh rupees suit (did he?).  Or a fraud claim by The Hindu which said that Baba Ramdev sold Ebola cure. Perhaps most of the people would know that these news along with many others were lies, but that is not even 1% of the whole story. So what's the whole story. See the nature of the fake news which is being propagated. So if a journalist like Sagarika Ghose asks an economic expert Bhagwati, about rise of Radical Hindutva post May2014, you can safely assume that she is running an agenda. The type of news which are being spun and twisted, mostly belong to the PM or his party and it is safe to say that they are deliberate. The Media, by and large is running a propaganda and it seems quite intentional. It is not for no reason that Lalit Modi-Sushma story is given weeks of vociferous coverage but Lalit Modi - Gandhi/Vadra fmaily meetings are hushed into oblivion.
3. Character Assasination - This is an old trick of commies but for some reason they weren't using it on the Social Media activists. Better late than never. Media Trolls like Rajdeep, Vir, NDTV hacks and other so called celebrities like Chetan Bhagat, Sagarika Ghose, who I have termed as Internet Bimbos have coined filthy abusive terms like 'Bhakt', 'Internet Hindus', 'Hindu Trolls' etc to coverup for their own goof ups. I have mentioned earlier as well, the intent and personality is insignificant. The content and message is significant. However even if I discount this, more than 90% of the accused Trolls are non abusive. They are the ones who ask tough, inconvenient and uncomfortable questions to Internet Bimbos. Naturally these activists are blocked, vilified. This attack on pre dominantly Modi supporters is systematic and well orchestrated. 
4. Ab Auctoritate - This means argument of authority. This ploy is being used by Media quite often. They would call someone who is halloed and has considerable authority and appeal among the viewers. He typically represents the Left wing and his thoughts are shown as too holy to be questioned. So if you see Amartya Sen or Hilary Clinton hopping TV studios going on a bashing spree and puking lies then do not be surprised. You are just being attacked by the Ab Auctoritate strategy. Once again, see the message than the messenger. Just because the person expressing the message has  a high authority does not mean he has to be correct. Let those experts' opinions remain opinions and not gospel truths.

There are many more ways which Indian Media ahs adopted, however the more important part comes to the point, what is BJP/Modi govt. doing to counter this. If not for the govt's leniency, none of the above would have happened. A look at some of the stupid and dumb policies adopted by the government of the day, which they should totally avoid.

1. Appeasing the Commies - Like the previous NDA govt. this govt. is indulging in a commie appeasing spree and in the race to get a 'liberal' certificate from the Commies, it is compromising on its ideals which is both unfortunate and disgusting. Be it asserting commie thinkers of past or adulating them with awards and recognition or paying heed to them in some (if not all) matters.
2. Inaction against Media Trolls and Internet Bimbos - Even the most liberal nations have strict laws against misreporting but not India. In India reports who indulge in paid/brokered news are recognized as celebrities. It has been already established that Media Trolls and Internet Bimbos run fake stories deliberately and so they must be dealt with harsh punishments. Severe lawsuits, captivity and even execution (only if it is to save the lives of masses) should be adopted to silence the Internet Bimbos and Media Trolls from lying continuously. Sushma Swaraj, Smriti Irani, Narendra Modi, Shivraj Chouhan, Amit Shah et al might be victims of continuous Media misreporting but they deserve little sympathyfor their inaction against these Media Trolls.
3. No due for supporters -  Many supporters have complained that after winning elections, they haven't got their due. Some others have complained that their views, suggestions and opinions are no longer given any importance. A disheartened core supporter base is not very likely to defend the party against this propaganda. This lack of motivation has forced many to stay silent during this Commie onslaught.
4. Inaction on Corrupticians - One can only feel miserable if he is being accused of corruption by one of the most allegedly corrupt parties in the history Congress or its allies like AAP, TMC, NCP etc. Again the fault lies with BJP which has treated the so called corrupts like Vadra, Pawar, Chavhan etc with kids gloves. There hasn't been any action, even on a symbolic basis to show to the public. So it has to result in someone like Rahul Gandhi or Arvind Kejriwal accusing BJP politicians to be corrupt.
5. Institutions Cleansing - None of the important institutions are being cleansed. All those places infested with Commies continue to hold forte. Even though the govt. has bene criticized for something which has not been done, when it comes to actions, the govt. has failed. Except for one or two tokenism, most of the positions continue to be ruled by Commies who not only propagate their views but also abuse the same govt. which nurtures them.
6. Regular U Turns - One Rank One pension for all is an emotional issue as it involves war veterans but BJP's silence on this is unforgivable. They might have some plans but not making it public shows them in bad light. Not releasing classified documents on Netaji's death. Henderson's reports on China war, not rolling back or cutting off Economy bleeding schemes like MNREGA. U Turns on GST. Black Money, no action against Vadra, TMC, SP, AAP and other allegedly corrupt parties. There are a horde of issues where BJP made a miserable U turn. Co incidentally Mr. Arun Jaitely current Finance Minister and former Defense Minister was at the epicentre of all these U Turns.

It appears that Media which had failed to do anything between 2002 and 2014 has been fairly successful in creating an Anti Modi perception all around. Prior to May 2014, its supporters saved the day for BJP. Will Modi govt. do enough to undo the damage? The 1st bout has been won by the Indian Media, backed by commies. Will the government take this as a wake up call or will it prefer to die down the  2004 way?

Tick tock tick....... time is running out for Modi Sarkaar

Chetan Bhagat is the biggest ‘Bhakt’ as per his definition

At the risk of being repetitive, I would state that Chetan Bhagat is the most perfect example of a ‘Bhakt’ as he meets the following 4 necessary/sufficient conditions more than anyone

1.      He is a male (don’t know if he has any other covert gender)

2.      He is weak in English. He might have written a few English novels but mind you they have more grammatical mistakes than the number of copies they were sold. He suffers from an intrinsic inferiority complex as he admits in the article to which this response is written. He is ashamed of admitting the glorious past of ancient India as he might be mocked at, in his elite social circles for being a ‘proud’ Indian.

3.      He is as sexist and abusive towards woman as a worst man can be. His article, mocking women who preferred to be housewives (read women who make chapattis) draw criticism from all corners.

4.      Finally, he is someone who is ashamed of his country, leaves no stone unturned to paint a fake picture showing his country in the wrong light and is both ignorant and ashamed of Hindi and anything remotely related to Hinduism.

Way to treat women?

He again shows sexism when he talks about “proper way to behave with women”. I mean should his ‘bhakts’ behave with men differently from how they behave with women? So as per Bhagat, it is perfectly okay to give seventh hell’s abuse to a man, because a man can take it.

Hiding behind Low IQ Celebrity Trolls

If you need to hide behind someone of the intellectual level of Sagarika Ghose, who is extremely low in IQ but really high in propaganda, then it shows both your moral as well as intellectual bankruptcy. Time and again Sagarika Ghose has been caught red handed for lying, making contradictory statements on an issue, showing strong inclination towards a political party and ideology. She might have good English but when it comes to substance, Ghose’s articles and views would make a filthy garbage bin look like pure gold, in comparison. Shruti Seth likewise, other than her cute smile and some dumb TV appearances has little to offer on intellect. These elitists might be high and heavy on money and fame but when it comes to intellect, I would be willing to put my goat to compete with these self proclaimed intellectuals and it is my belief that the goat will win with flying colours. Mr. Bhagat what you have forgotten is that the message is important. It is not important who presents the argument, whether ‘Internet Hindus’ or Internet Bimbos like you or Sagarika. The real important thing is the message and the content of the argument. Play on the content, not the poster. Men and women die but the message (if worthy) lives through eternity.

Blind Support

If someone believes that Modi’s supporters on social media have been blindly supporting Modi then he/she is blinder than the word ‘blind’. Most, if not all of his known supporters in Social Media have been chasing Mr. Modi and have been asking him tough questions on his pre poll promises. A quick glance on Twitter Timelines of his know supporters (anon handles discounted) would reveal that these supporters who are wrongfully termed as ‘Bhakts’ by Internet Bimbos, have played the actual role of constructive opposition which this country so desperately needed. Also the issues raised by these people have been far more meaningful than the fake issues raised by mediocre opposition and Indian Media on an agenda

Fascist Mindset

Expression of free speech is our fundamental right and some celebrity trolls creating noise about it does not take this right away from an average Indian. You and your biases aside, no one can take away this right from Indians. Sagarika Ghose might have coined a farcial term ‘Internet Hindus’ but it is because of these social media users, her article gets hits and views and low IQ Internet Bimbos like her stay in business despite writing trash and junk

Ignore You

A part of me would urge everyone to ignore your article and the trash talk you posted in Dainik Bhaskar today. However I know that you have a reasonable Social Media clout and you can influence opinions, so it was important to nullify your lies and there was only 1 way to do it; to speak the truth.

You may be a bestselling author with lakhs of copies sold across the country but do not forget that we live in a country which gave 67 seats to AAP and 60 years to Congress after being ruled by much a smaller country for centuries; so numbers do not necessarily tell the true story. Perhaps you have more in common with Arvind Kejriwal than just an IIT degree.

Sincerely

Not a ‘Bhakt’

BJP has made many mistakes but allying with PDP isn't one of them

PDP-BJP alliance would be no different from an India-Pakistan alliance or a USA-USSR alliance. 2 extremely opposite poles but bound by a common axis. Many BJP supporters would have been perplexed by this decision. PDP's soft stand on terrorism and separatism is well known and the incumbent CM of the alliance made his intentions well known by his acts one after the another. He is clearly working on his agenda but what of BJP? BJP seems to lose the popular support of educated masses who are largely against any soft stand on terrorism or the draconian and controversial Article 370. BJP has made far too many goof ups and mistakes in its short rule of 9 months but sharing power with PDP in Jammu and Kashmir is definitely not one of them. I would try to list down a few reasons as to why it is really important for BJP to be in power in the northern state

Security - India has been attacked countless times through the northern corridor. It is important that the party which is ruling the centre, rules the state as well. It would be foolhardy to believe that India's incumbent NSA and former ace spy Ajit Doval wouldn't have had a say in this. He is a man who works behind the scenes. In his scheme of things it would have been really important to share power in Jammu and Kashmir to implement is plans in a prudent and pragmatic way, even if it came at the cost of BJP losing some popular support. Most (if not all) of BJP's supporters are not as wise and well informed as Ajit Doval. What he is doing is probably for the best and needs support, not outrage

Balance - As PDP represents 1 pole, BJP represents the other. With BJP in the alliance, the PDP's adventurous steps, like cosying up to separatists, appeasing Pro pakistani elements will be kept in check. Mufti govt. would realize the resistance he faces, as compared to the widespread support, he would have enjoyed from another posisble ally Congress in his adventurism. BJP was fast to dismiss Mufti's claims of terrorists having a role to play in free and fair elections in the valley.

Relevance -  PDP has a choice. It can choose NC or Congress or both and still keep on doing things which are not perceived to be in India's interests. So BJP's presence in this alliance is irrelevant as they would not have any control over this. PDP can well ally with Congress and still do those acts. BJP and its supporters can do nothing but gulp these things. However with BJP in power, it can pinch PDP regularly, act as a nuisance if not a strong resistance, which would ultimately bring down such embarrassing moments and possibly PDP may start behaving properly.

History - BJP, (even under [perceived softer leadership of Vajpayee) played a key role in neutralizing terrorism in Punjab, Assam and some of the other north eastern states. A 'more aggressive'  Modi would be equally good if not better than Vajpayee. They need to be given some time. Terrorism took some time to fade out in both Punjab and Assam. If the same can be done in Jammu and Kashmir, it would be an amazing feat.

The surface of the ocean is vast, but it is not the only truth. The great depths of truth, still lay undiscovered before everyone. Time needs to be given. It is a sensitive issue and requires the support. There are a LOT of issues where BJP needs to be cornered and questioned (not enough action on Economic front, no strong action on Corrupt and corruptions, adopting double standards on Secularism, using Congres sbrand of appeasement etc) but this is not one of those.

Delhi Polls - Why the Media backed 'Opinion' Polls are Misleading?

It is as if AAP has got hold of some 'Bramhastra'. The party which was predicted to go into an oblivion post Delhi Assembly elections 2015, not 2 months ago, is now suddenly being hailed as a sure shot winner by its all time Cheer Leaders, the Indian mainstream Media. What exactly changed in the last 2 months? What trick did BJP miss? I would try to analyze how much of it is true and trustworthy, but before all of this a short note on who this election is really fought between.

Battle Royale

It will be quite incorrect to say this fight is between BJP and AAP (not because Congress is a non entity here). It would also be incorrect to say that this fight is between 2 individuals Bedi vs Kejriwal or Modi vs AAP or Kejriwal vs Shah etc. In real terms, BJP had lost the fight even before it began. BJP had no answer to AAP's carpet bombing. Thousands of energized AAP volunteers swarmed the city and visited every potential household, they assessed, might vote for them. In contrast BJP was relying on Modi rallies and eventually paid a good price for sitting idle. However their supporters were not silent and campaigned aggressively both in Social media and on Ground. On the other hand, AAP, despite having a strong campaign was not taken well by the voters. They had help, from the Media. Media played one giant role in negating the perception of 'Bhagoda' about Kejriwal. Moments back an 'independent' journalist in ABP news said AAP completed all its promises (free bijli, free water) except Lokpal and when it could not pass Lokpal, it left the govt. due to moral reasons. Now how true is that? Did AAP not leave for Kejriwal's Prime Ministerial ambitions? So in a way it would not be wrong to say that in effect, Delhi elections are between Indian Media and BJP supporters with AAP and BJP acting as the face of these two entities.

Lutyens dominated Media supports AAP as it is their last resort to undermine their nemesis, Modi. Not for no reasons have these opinion polls sprung up, hailing Kejriwal to be heading for a sweeping victory. Let's analyze these polls from an electoral viewpoint.

Story the numbers tell

How did the parties fair in last 2 polls
AS 2013 - BJP 33%, AAP 30%, Congress 25%
LS 2014 - BJP 47%, AAP 33%, Congress 15%

To naked eyes, it may appear that both BJP and AAP gained at the expense of Congress and Others, with BJP gaining more in the Lok Sabha elections, compared to the Assembly. However this is not true. Various sampling experiments reveal that AAP lost a SIGNIFICANT chunk of voters to BJP, especially the educated and/or middle class voters who were fed up with the AAP theatrics. This could be as high as 10% of the voters base. Some of these would also include voters who voted Kejriwal for CM but wanted Modi as PM. So the new figures should have been BJP 43%, AAP 20% and Congress 25% but the story does not end here. BJP would also gain some votes from Congress (~2% due to National Anti Incumbency) and Others (~2% due to BJP being a National party). On the other hand, many Congress floater voters (who were/are anti BJP) would not have voted AAP in Assembly thinking it to be a wastage would have considered AAP as a more viable Anti BJP alternative in Lok Sabha, so as high as 8% of them would migrate to AAP. AAP would also gain 5% from the 'Others' section as historically, these voters were neither fond of BJP nor Congress. So rightfully the number read 47%, 33% and 15%. So it is conclusive that AAP did lose a huge chunk of votes in the Lok Sabha.

The Loyal Voter Base

Each party has a dedicated votebase.
BJP - If one analyzes BJP's voteshare across elections, it has hovered around 33% to 52% in last few terms, and never went below 33% (at the peak of AAP wave) in the last two and a half decades decade. So it is safe to assume, BJP has a loyal vote base of 30% in Delhi

Congress - Congress has degrown since 2009 Lok Sabha elections in Delhi. Their low of 25% in Assembly 2013 was soon eclipsed by a new low of 15% in Lok Sabha 2014. Despite that fact that Congress was a loser in Assembly and a sure shot loser in 2014, 15% still held on to it. However some of these may realize that voting a losing entity is going to be futile and except for a few scattered pockets, Congress' story is all but over this time, so atleast a 1/3rd of the voters, the educated and the less emotional one would desert Congress, pegged at around 5%. So the loyal votebase for Congress is 10%

AAP - There are very few elections to analyze AAP's loyal base but the 2 elections DO give a story. As mentioned earlier, a huge chunk (as high as 10%) deserted AAP in Lok Sabha. However 20% of them still hung on to the party, despite its failures, theatrics and over ambitiousness. So AAP loyal vote base forms of 20%

Others - Small parties like BSP, INLD, SP etc have their pockets of influence in the city. Add to it the independents. The others vote share was around 5% in Lok Sabha and 12% in Assembly, which is understandable given that voters tend to polarize towards known parties in Lok Sabha elections than in Assembly. Also due to the higher number of seats in Assembly (70 to 7), the number of Independents with localized influence increase in an Assembly election. Hence the others would have a Loyal vote base of 10%.

Total Loyal Vote Base = 30% + 10% + 20% + 10% = 70%

The Floater Voter Base

These are the voters who would decide the fate of this election or any election for that matter. In 2013 and 2014 and even before that, these voters have shifted their allegiances across parties. But who are these voters and who are they likely to vote this time and for what reason? Let us try to further segregate these voters into segments and try to analyze which way they would vote.

1. Young Urban women (3%) - Aged between 18 to 35, they are approximately 3% in number. This does not mean that there are just 5% women in Delhi between the age of 18 and 35. This means that those women who do not have any party loyalty are approximately 3%
Who did they vote in 2013? - Possibly AAP
Who will they vote in 2014? - Possibly BJP
Who will they vote in 2015? - Possibly BJP
Driving Reason - Face of Kiran Bedi and issues related to women
Is there a swing compared to 2014 - No

2. Non Anti BJP Minorities (6%) - This group comprises mostly of voters who are not hostile to BJP and can vote to any party which they perceive would raise there issues
Who did they vote in 2013? AAP, BJP, Congress in that order
Who did they vote in 2014? BJP, AAP, Congress in that order
Who will they vote in 2015? AAP BJP Congress in that order
Driving Reason - BJP govt. did some work for them bu not enough to be perceived
Is there a swing compared to 2014 - Yes

3 Rural Settlers population, working class (5%) - This is the group which comprises of rural class (excluding above 2 categories)
Who did they vote in 2013? Congress, BJP, AAP in that order
Who did they vote in 2014? BJP, Congress, AAP in that order
Who will they vote in 2015? BJP, AAP, Congress in that order
Driving Reason - BJP's promise of rehab and growing pro poor image
Is there a swing compared to 2014 - Yes for AAP, No for BJP

4 Poor and weaker sections (11%) - The group of people who represent the poorest of the poor who lack even the basic facilities.
Who did they vote in 2013? AAP, Congress, BJP in that order
Who did they vote in 2014? AAP, BJP, Congress in that order
Who will they vote in 2015? AAP, BJP, Congress in that order
Driving Reason - AAP has been successful in convincing this set of voters and hence will get a major chunk of it
Is there a swing compared to 2014 - No

5 Others (5%) - The remaining population who are mostly in the outer areas of Delhi.
Who did they vote in 2013? BJP, Congress, AAP in that order
Who did they vote in 2014? BJP, Congress, AAP in that order
Who will they vote in 2015? BJP AAP, Congress in that order
Driving Reason - AAP was limited to the city region in 2013 but has now penetrated into the outskirts
Is there a swing compared to 2014 - Yes

The above 5 categories are mutually exclusive among themselves and one is not present in the 2nd. However these 5 categories are not exhaustive and would also be present in the 'loyal' voter base of the respective parties.

The partywise takeway of floater base would be

BJP - 1.5%+2%+2.5%+3%+2.5% = 11.5%
Congress - 0%+1%+0.5%+0.5%+0.5% = 2.5%
AAP - 1.5%+3%+2%+7.5%+2% = 16%

AAP would walk away with the majority of floater vote base as per my analysis, BJP a close 2nd and Congress not in the picture. The total voteshare would hence look like
BJP - 30+11.5 = 41.5%
Congress - 10+2.5 = 12.5%
AAP - 20+16 = 36%
Others - 10%

At a this vote share (BJP 41.5%, AAP, 36%, Congress 12.5%, Others 10%), the seats tally should hover around
BJP - 50-54
AAP - 12-16
Congress - 1-5
Others - 0-2

Hence the Media run Opinion Polls with the story of sudden surge of Kejriwal should be taken with a sack of salt.

To conclude, this is just an individual analysis without backing of any segregated sample survey. So it is possible that the analysis might not hold true during the counting day and results are quite different from what is stated here. However if logic is to be believed, the results should not be much different from what is stated here. What happens eventually will be known that day, for Indian voters have a knack of giving surprising results.

10 Reasons to vote out AAP forever

Elections are back in Delhi but the daily dosage of AAP 'tamasha' continued after May 2014 Polls and as AAP does, it has continued to be in election mode, whether or not there was an election around. A significant percentage of AAP's support, across India has been disillusioned even after the Lok Sabha elections in last May. Their free fall which started in January 2015, has continued till date. It was evident from the Assembly Bye Polls in Punjab later in 2014, when AAP lost deposits in all the seats, just a few months after stunning everyone by winning 100% of their (4) Lok Sabha seats from the state. But what would become of Delhi? Only Time will tell if Delhites are willing to correct their mistakes of 2013 or not but here are 10 reasons why they should strongly consider voting out AAP this time and making it irrelevant forever so that no other opportunist thug dares to fool people in the name of revolution.

1. Surrender to Kiran Bedi  - Not once but thrice, has Arvind Kejriwal offered Ms. Bedi, AAP's CM candidature and she has rejected it all the 3 times. Each time during elections, Kejriwal would offer her CM post, after getting nervous by the news of Bedi joining BJP. In doing so he acknowledged that Bedi was and is a far better face for CM than Kejriwal himself and why not? Afterall Kiran Bedi was receiving honours as a fearless IPS officer when Kejriwal was playing peekaboo as a child.
2. No Cliche No story - Last time one used to hear cliched terms like 'Lokpal', 'Swaraj', 'RTI', 'Raw Data', 'Raw Video' etc. Kejriwal had fed these terms to his Troll army who had mugged up these key words to answer any question that came their way. This time these words are missing but there are new sets of cliches, "Free Bijli" "Free Pani", "No Corruption". Well these new cliched terms like Free Bijli, Free Pani et all are as useless as the previous ones in solving the problems of Delhites which are (or were), high food inflation, Law and order, women security, Jobs for youth, business environment. Not to mention the Free bijli was never free and there was no water for many of them, let alone free water
3. More hypocritical than the word hypocrite - Kejriwal wanted every one to resign from Reliance, HSBC and other corrupt companies. On his nomination, to flex his muscle, he appealed to all his blind followers to take leave and descend to his nomination venue. He, then cribbed about how his wife could not join him because she was unable to take leave. So the paid time offs or resignations apply to everyone else but to him and his holy family. He has a different set of rules for him, compared to others. This was just an example. My intention is to finish this blog and hence would not give more examples of his hypocrisy
4. Camera fever - Not many of you would have read the story of the 'evil' aunt who was jealous of the beauty of her niece the princess and her obsession never let our out of her makeup room. Kejriwal has a similar obsession with the Camera. He wants to remain in news. Being in news is as important to him as breathing or drinking water. No other politician has ever been so publicity hungry as Kejriwal. He will do itemgiri even if he becomes CM again. to remain in news. A man whose chores are appearing for interviews will never find time to work for those who elected him
5. What LIES beneath. - In my previous blog, I already highlighted how AAP ran deceitful campaigns about increasing prices of Cancer drugs. There is not a day which has gone by, when Kejriwal has not uttered a plethora of lies. To mention one of the many million lies, he had said during Lok Sabha elections, " I will never leave Varanasi. Even if I lose i will stay here and work". Any child would know how many times Kejriwal has gone to Varanasi since his one sided loss. If one can lie shamelessly in the name of his children, there is no reason to believe him when he says; "I promise to work for you now and not repeat mistakes of last time" or for that matter when he says ANYTHING.
6. AAP School of certification - Well some have already faced it, but soon, everyone will. Once people start questioning AAP, they will be branded as Traitors, corrupts and agents of every industrialist to have walked this planet. Just moments back I saw AAP Trolls were abusing Bhushans (both Shanti and Prashant) for questioning Kejriwal. I have no sympathy for Bhushans for their stand on various issues but those who couldn't even stand by the Founding fathers and chief Chanda Donors of the party, will they stand with anyone else? Be ready to get a Certificate from AAP on anything you say against them
7. Corruption - Yes you read it right. AAP is as corrupt (if not more) than any of the other mainstream party. Just because they give some fictional donor list on their website does not make them 'honest'. Their sources of funds are as grey as it can get. Fictional names like Gandhi, Jinnah, Nehru have donated to AAP. This is the transparency they talk about. It is a pity that other parties like BJP are too incompetent to highlight their fraud.
8. Chaos -  AAP believes in creating chaos, dharnas and jams. If you do not remember those Dharna days of last January-February, you will do well to remember how their rowdyism and hooliganism affect day to day life of city dwellers. It is not a faking news that AAP Trolls descended in a hospital, when they were in power and forcefully administered TB medicines to patients who were not even TB patients. You surely do not want to face a situation where an AAP volunteer forces you to take Diabetes medicine, when you do not suffer from Diabetes just out of good intention.
9. Ambani Agent - Guess which government gifted Rs 300 Crores to Ambani from the taxes you pay? It was a government which keeps calling everyone Ambani agent. They had promised to make Electricity cheaper by acting against 'corrupt' power distribution companies but instead what they do? Take a portion of the money from the taxes you pay, meant to build schools, hospitals, roads etc and give it to Ambani, in the form of Subsidy. And TV channels like Aaj tak, CNN-IBN which have significant stake of the Ambanis do give immense coverage to Kejriwal. Surely one has to be an Ambani agent to get so much of footage from his channels. It would be interesting to find out what Kejriwal and Co. did in 2013 after which TV channels lifted the 8 month black out on him. (Kejriwal was blacked out by TV channels from December 2012 to Mid 2013, but all of a sudden he started to get abysmally high coverage)
10. And More lies - By now if anyone still doubts that Kejriwal is not a 'Jhooth ka Pulinda';, he needs to see a Psychiatrist and not keep browsing internet for consoling self about his innocence. Last month I saw posters of a survey by Total TV which claimed AAP to win with thumping majority, only to be thrashed by the Channel's Chief editor who refuted such claims to be 'imaginary'.

I am not here to support any BJP or Congress. This post is solely against AAP and urges the readers (especially those who are from Delhi) to vote out AAP and make this party irrelevant forever.. There are a lot of bad politicians around, we do not need more of them. We need those who can clean the mess, not those who spread 'Rayata' and 'Gandagi'. 

Media Terrorism overwhelms PM Narendra Modi

For 12 years, current Indian Prime Minister defied numerous bouts of Media's propaganda and deliberate campaign by a group of powerful Media Editors across electronic channels and print editions, who were infamously termed as 'News Traders' by the PM himself during his run up to the election for the office of the Prime Minister. The more they attacked the man, the stronger he grew. Thanks to a vast army of Online supporters who were well informed, rebellious and aggressive towards every Media misreporting for they had found an alternative channel (Social Media) to counter the propaganda. They would have expected that the Media misreporting would come to a halt once Modi assumes the office of the Prime Minister. They were soon proved wrong.

In the last few months, the kind of rumour mongering undertaken by Indian Media would ace bring fiction writers to shame. This report  gives only a small percentage of hit jobs undertaken by the Indian Media. The main targets for these reports other than the PM himself have primarily been HRD Minister Smriti Irani, Former Health Minister Harshvardhan and even non political entities which have a leaning towards the Modi govt. Scores of examples are there when Media tried to either blow any particular issue out of proportion, creating a mountain out of a molehill or completely misreport a particular item. I will select a few of these and analyze them.

Some critical issues, grossly mishandled by Indian Media recently

1. Conversion Row - The conversion row which stormed the Parliament was the umpteenth instance where one could see a clear nexus between Opposition parties and the Media Terrorists working in tandem. Lopsided debate would hog the limelight of the prime time shows. The same would be used to create an uproar in Parliament and that in turn would feed media reporting subsequently. This was a vicious cycle of sorts. Media got exposed here on 2 counts. First, their desperate attempt to link the Conversion row with the rise of Hindu extremism. Anyone who knows how to use Google would know that such events are mundane stuff. Even in 2013, 2012 and the years before that, the Hinduwadi organizations have been executing 'reconversions' of people who mostly followed Christianity or Islam. Media cannot get benefit of doubt on this for not knowing about this because ordinary citizens like me know about these 'reconversions' through Archived articles of Media websites so it is a foregone conclusion that those who have reported these events in the past (albeit with far lesser coverage than now) would definitely know about these events and their attempt to link it to the rise of Hindu extremism, at best reeks of some foul play. Second, their silence on similar conversions over the last 60 years from Hinduism to Christianity/Islam and not question the conversions of other institutions , Christian Missionaries to be specific and there much ambitious PROJECT JOSHUA, using Money, Power and deception; is enough to infer that Media is playing to the agenda and not reporting properly
2. Black Money Handling - To be honest, I have not been very happy about the way, Modi govt. has gone about the Black Money issue. However there is no reason to question their integrity and honesty at this point. The process they have adopted is slow and bureaucratic in nature and there might still be a long way to go before black money is retrieved. However the Media reporting on this was something which BJP never promised. They have allowed opposition parties to highlight a fake claim of bringing money within 100 days, which PM or any of his colleagues never promised. Moreover, they tried to blow the Supreme Court's comments on this issue out of proportions, without showing the actual official judgement from the Hon'ble Court. The Media again, appears to be working on an agenda and would somehow want to make it appear that the current Govt. has been a failure in just 100 days of assuming office.
3. HRD & Health Ministries hitjobs - From running stories like "Health Budget has been cut mid year" to "Prices of essential drugs have been raised by 10 times", Media has pioneered the art of 'Fiction News reporting, because none of these news were true. Coming to HRD Ministry, Media's ill intentions were discovered at an early stage when they tried to create a non existent fire of 'Saffronization of Indian Education". From reports like "Non Veg food banned in IIT" to "Schooling compulsory on Christmas Day", not only has the media indulged in false reporting, but also deliberately trying to give issues a communal colour. For example 25th December was chosen as 'Good Governance Day' because it happens to be former PM and BJP patron AB Vajpayee's birthday along with the birthday of Mahamana Pandit Madan Mohan Malviya, but many renowned journalists and editors tried to give it a communal colour by linking it with 'Christmas being hijacked by Hinduwadis'. It can only be left to one's imagination as to why did Media choose these 2 ministers. One of them fought Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, while other fought Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi 2013, both of them were pushed and publicized by the Media beyond measure during Elections. Was there any agenda behind hitting these 2 ministers, is something only they can tell
4. Attack on the Security Apparatus - The lesser said about this issue, the better. Media wanted Press conferences to be conducted by PM on Chinese incursions and Pakistani ceasefire violations on the Border. Such a situation becomes a devil-ditch situation for the governments. They cannot say anything publicly on acts against rival nations to maintain plausible deniability and simultaneously, they cannot deny inaction before their public as well. Under such a situation, it is the duty of the Media to play along with the govt. However Media made multiple attempts to trap the govt. on these issues. The admission of such acts would lead India to a war like situation before Chine/Pakistan. The deniability of such acts would make the local populace fill with agony against Govt's inactions. Again Media chose to dictate agenda, for entities best known to them.

Almost 8 months have passed but the Indian Media, by and large continues to present views as news. The shift of regime at the centre has had little affects on their loyalty. One can think of 3 possible reasons for this

1. Media Leanings -  The example (1) above gives the feeling that Indian Media by and large is Left leaning, Anti Hindu and Anti Development. There may be Nationalist elements in its fold but in the current situation, the important and powerful positions in the Media is being occupied by Leftists who want to create the fear psychosis of 'Hindu Fundamentalists' destroying their 'Idea of India'
2. Link with Enemies -  Media's tie ups with foreign agencies, especially of Pakistan cannot be ruled out. If one carefully analyzes the stand taken by prominent Indian Journos and Anti India forces such as Lashkar -e- Taiyabba, JuD, ISI etc, they are found to be exactly the same. Be it the plight of forcefully exiled Kashmiri Hindus, Indian Army, War on Terrorism or Narendra Modi
3. Pressure of the Powerful -  It is possible that Media is not doing these intentionally but out of threat and pressure from those who would lose politically, monetarily and otherwise if such sort of reporting is not done.

What Steps should the Narendra Modi government take to counter Media terrorism?

In my views, Narendra Modi should stop acting like Vajpayee or Nehru and start acting like Sardar Patel for which he was elected. Some of these steps would be to.

1. Pass strict laws and impose laws on Media, allowing government to take stern action on cases pertaining to Internal Security threats due to misreporting
2. Set example by acting against Corrupt channels (for example shutting down a TV channel for its Tax Frauds will make other channels fall in line)
3. File a horde of lawsuits against all those who have indulged in Media Terrorism and make them pay for it financially.
4. Do not allow Cabinet Ministers to give random interviews. Ministry should have only 1 official press briefing channels with no direct access of any Minister to any journalist

Other steps would include

1. Ensure that PM Modi, does not play to the agenda of Media. In a survey Modi was described as 'loved by millions and hated by hundreds'. He would do well to not risk the love of these millions by trying to impress those hundreds who hate him
2. Use the mandate to take stern actions and set examples. Play it smart and not allow Media to force actions of rogue elements to officials
3. Modi has got votes not just for Development, but to strengthen Secularism of the country. He should make honest efforts to bridge the disparity by working on the real agendas of majority community (Kashmiri Hindus, bringing equal laws for all)which has been oppressed for centuries
4. Also break the backbone of Media by starting investigations against the Corrupt politicians who act as lifelines to the Media terrorists.

Modi did not reach where he is because of the Media. he reached there, in spite of it and with the support of millions of his followers. Riding 2 boats may not bring him to shore. He has to choose wisely and the one which has been a proven success formula for him.