The Polarized battle of Uttar Pradesh 2017

Continuing my analysis of UP elections from here, the 4 major parties of Uttar Pradesh tried to capitalize on their strengths as I predicted in the SWOT, several months back. However in doing so, they ignored various opportunities presented before them and also ignored their as well as opponent's weakness. Summarizing how the events unfolded in the past few months.

The 4th Pillar experiment - Congress would never expect to win a full majority in UP, especially with no credible CM face and even more especially with the Gandhis at the helm. However they had additional stake, their plan was/is not to win the power in the state but stop BJP from getting it as the remaining parties BSP/SP have repeatedly supported it in the past during times of stress trust Vote. However to dent BJP, Congress would have to showcase itself as a strong 4th poll, so as to dent the chunk of UC (particularly Brahmin voters), not enough for it to win, but enough to make BJP lose across many seats. Congress appointed 'star campaigner' Prashant Kishore and also nominated popular, former Delhi CM as Brahmin face. On paper it looked good to get votes of Old Brahmins, traditional minority and Dalit voters of Congress and it looked like that the Congress might get back to double digit vote share and dent BJP in atleast a 100 seats.

The Brahmin Coup - Ever since 2013, there hasn't been an election where BJP surrendered to Congress. BJP has been beaten only by other regional parties since 2013. So as in all other Post 2013 cases, the Brahmin Lao strategy of Congress was expected to fall flat and it fell deeper than the abyss. BJP's heist ensured that the most popular Brahmin faces the Congress ever had were no longer part of it. Gandhi family loyalist Rita Joshi Bahuguna, and ND Tiwari were grabbed from Congress. These leaders won't add much value to BJP but definitely puncture Congress. Scores of tier 3 brahmin leaders from Congress, BSP influxed to the BJP making it the sole choice of Brahmins who form 10% voter base. Congress alliance with SP has ensured that it would struggle to get remaining Brahmin votes which hitherto had been an old loyal votebank since Chacha Nehru days.. BJP delivered a punch to Congress' core strategy of wooing Brahmins.

The Surgical Strike - One of the top 3 most important reasons why Nitish Kumar was able to reverse the early NDA winning trend was that he took Narendra Modi head on. His punch lines proved t be more lethal and between the 2 negative campaigns, his was the more effective. He was successful in showing Narendra Modi as a talking lion. He coined the word 'Jumla Babu' (man with no action but only words). He successfully raised suspicion on people's minds and many of them started asking about 15 lakhs black money in their accounts, many others would ask about the Dal prices at Rs 230/kg. The surgical stike against terror camps in POK rebranded Narendra Modi as a strong leader. Over 90% across India and 80% in UP backed this 'bold move'. This move alone boosted Brand Modi back to pre 2014 levels, thus leaving little room for his opponents. They were/are left in a state where both supporting and opposing this move would harm them.

The Carpet Bombing - Demonetization move in the November was nothing short of a shock Carpet Bombing. The aim was to get profit of Rs 3 to 4 lakh crores by rendering existing black currency as useless. The move would hamper individual residents across the country for the 1st 50 days but the profit cash of Rs 4 lakh crores would compensate the poor and the honest middle class voters through direct cash and tax benefits respectively. Lives were at standstill for the 1st 50 days and things normalized after that. However the much hyped cash surplus never came to the govt coffers as earlier estimated. The Govt.brought various micro checks during the process to counter the theft by Black Money hoarders but it seems that in the end, the latter prevailed. The actual cash surplus could be anywhere between Rs 40 thousand crores to Rs 1.6 lakh crores (as reported by different sections of Media). Whatever be the case of cash collection, the aam junta perceived this as a war against corruption and hence, despite difficulties supported this move. It is difficult to say for how long, the government would enjoy this sort of support. Things have normalized however there is no clarity on the benefits which the people would get for enduring those difficulties for 50 long days. If the govt presents a favourable budget on Feb 1 , 2017, the support would not dwindle as feared. However no announcement of compensation might turn a path breaking initiative to a risky, damaging event

The Old  Messiah of Media - Each election, an influential section of Media (Lutyens gang), picks up, backs and campaigns for a candidate who they feel might be the best placed to defeat Narendra Modi. Kejrial, Lalu, Nitish, Mamta, basically anyone who subscribes to their divisive 'idea of India'. The gang was earlier backing Mayawati to destroy the neo Socialist party BJP. One would sympathize with the way Mayawati was tricked into this by the mafia. She was lured into stitching a non existent (but formidable on paper) alliance of Dalit-Muslims, who together form slightly above 40% of the voters. with some of the other backward caste voters and a few loyal Brahmin votes and seemingly become invincible in even a 2 pole race with approximately 45% of votes. Serious influx of strong leaders to BJP and the demonetization, destroyed Mayawati's campaign. There wasn't enough money to run a campaign at the same scale of coffer filled BJP and SP (who are in power at the centre and the state respectively). As a part of of her Dalit-Muslim strategy Mayawati gave more than 25% tickets to muslims, thereby substantially polarizing the elections. Mayawati was misled to believe that a volatile alliance of dlait-Muslims would lead her to the power. Such a social coalition was simply not possible for the simple reason that since pre independence days, any type of communal riots or genocides across the Indian sub continent has 1 definite outcome, the destruction of families and houses of Dalit masses as they bear the maximum brunt of Militant, aggressive communal rioters. A social coalition of Muslim and Dalits for power seemed like a friendship between a pack of wolves and a herd of deers to have lunch. Demonetization proved to be the final nail and Mayawati's campaign was torn apart.

The New Messiah of Media - Post demonetization, he Mafia started to project a new Hero. All of a sudden, Akhilesh Yadav who was leading a 'corrupt', inefficient regime and was branded a Gundaraj party suddenly became a development icon and Youth King. All of a sudden 100s of crimes against women, law and order issues vanished in thin air and the Lucknow-Agra expressway became the symbol of Akhilesh's development icon. The media mafia started to back Akhilesh since November 2016 for their usual Anti Modi protagonist role. After the unceremonious sacking of Mayawati, the Netaji junior sddenly became so great that the Mafia even discarded its one time hero, Mullayam Singh Yadav, wo attained this hero worship, since he opened fire on Pro Ram temple activists. The mafia played the inconsequential father-son fight (possibly staged) and showcased Akhilesh as a hero in the duel. ANother reason why Akhilesh was chosen and replaced ahead of Maya was his cosyness with perpetual Messiah Rahul Gandhi, for SP was all set to ally with Congress to keep the 'communal forces' at bay. Over the weeks the media mafia would project a backward, crime infested, migration prone Uttar Pradesh as more developed than the Western Europe and would do all to seal the deal. BJP won the war against media in 2014 but lost critical battles of 2015 (Delhi and Bihar). This battle, which is more critical than both Bihar delhi combined, could also be influenced by this powerful section of Media

The Mahagathbandhan - SP-Congress alliance is all but a formality now. With RLD and some other bit players like JDU, RJD, Peace Party all set to join. Is this mahagathbandhan as powerful as the one in Bihar? Purely based on 2014 arithmetic, the mahagathbandhan lags behind considerably. Talking of Mahagathbandhan, there were 2 other grand alliances, 1 in West Bengal 2016 and the other in Tamil Nadu 2016. All 3 had Congress as the common ally in the grand alliance. The green front was lucky in Bihar but failed miserably in the remaining 2 states. UP grand alliance has similarities to all the 3 Grand alliances.

Similarity with Bihar

1. BJP has no CM face, incumbent CM face is more popular than any regional BJP leader

2. BJP MPs of UP have hardly any work to show for to win people's support with some MPs even speaking against the party 

Similarity with West Bengal

1. Grand Alliance partners are a marginalized entities. 

2. The fight is more multi cornered as in West Bengal as compared to Bihar

Similarity with Tamil Nadu

1. Uttar Pradesh is more like Tamil Nadu in dealing with incumbent governments

2. Congress on a decline with no captive votebank as in Bihar/West Bengal

The Arithmetic - Since May 2014, BJP has lost anywhere between 4 to 10% in the state assemblies (with states over 100 assembly seats or above 10 Lok Sabha seats). Should this trend continue the party would secure atleast 33.5% of votes which should normally be enough for a thumping win in a 3 way fight. However with the fight becoming more and more 2 and a half way, the winner must need more than 36% votes to win through. So far Brahmins (10%) and dominant OBCs except Yadavas like Kurmis, Koeris, Lodhs, Kushwahas and Mauryas, Rajbahars (18%) are firmly with BJP. Yadavas and Muslims (28%) on the other hand are firmly with the Congress-SP-RLD grand alliance. The Rajputs (8%) and the Jats (2%) are evenly split between BJP and the grand alliance. BSP onky has assured votbank of Jatavas (12%). SO the BJP and alliance start with a firm edge of 33% compared to BSP's 12%. Ofcourse the degree of poalrization of these voting blocs and their actual turnout would change the equation a bit, the major balance of power lies with smaller OBC groups, smaller SC groups and smaller UC groups, who together form 22%. These small swing voters would ultimately determine who the winner is.

The Outcome - As of now, pragmatic rationalism suggests that irrespective of the alliance BJP is most suited to win the UP polls. The outcome is an assessment of numbers and trends. Actual results may wary depending on a lot of factors on a real time basis. However at the moment, the most likely outcome is below.

BJP 203 (36.5%) 

SP 113 (22.5%) 

Congress 37 (8%) 

RLD 7 (2%) 

BSP 35 (17%) 

Others 8 (14%)

Uptight Battle of Uttar Pradesh 2017

For the last 2 decades, Uttar Pradesh has witnessed a 4 cornered battle comprising of 2 National parties and the 2 caste based regional parties. The unique feature in Uttar Pradesh politics has been the inconsistency of the voters. Unlike in eastern states of West Bengal, Orissa, Bihar etc, the people of UP, rarely give a chance to same political party twice in a row, even when the elections are for different offices (MP vs MLA). It appears that people have less patience and much more aspiration compared to the underdeveloped eastern states. The following list reveals the complete story, election after election how voters swung in favour of a particular party. (Note – The name does not necessarily indicate the single largest party of any election. It merely indicates decisive swing of voters in favour of a particular party). As one can see, no single party has managed to get swing for 2 consecutive elections in a gap as small as 2 years. Could 2017 be different?

1998 – BJP

1999 – Congress

2002 - BSP

2004 – SP

2007 – BSP

2009 - Congress

2012 – SP

2014 - BJP

A careful analysis of vote share patterns and swing trends gives us the following conclusions

1. Swing voters in UP are restless and have very low tolerance for under performance and they keep on swinging to different parties across elections. Although the degree of swing may vary (1.5% in 2002 in favour of BSP to 30% in 2014 in favour of BJP)
2. Historically SP and BSP on their own have got absolute majority only once each time and their voteshares have never crossed 31%
3. On the other hand BJP has crossed 31% 5 times and 40% once while the other National Party has crossed 20% only once in 2002.
4. It is also evident that each time, the Congress has risen; it has done so mainly at the cost of BJP. Congress’ gains both in 1999 and 2009 were mostly at BJP’s expense.
5. This gives the notion that a 4 cornered race with 4 near equal strong partners does not suit BJP, SP and BSP in that order and suits very well for Congress
6. The reason for above is, BJP’s upper caste voters can swing to Congress if the latter is deemed to be a viable, winnable option, especially in National Polls. However in Assembly Polls BJP’s Upper Caste voters have deserted BJP for BSP/SP, only when BJP’s victory was nowhere in sight (2007, 2012), in other cases, they hung around with BJP (2002)

2017 elections – The Players SWOT

1. Congress

It is a near non player in Assembly Polls (unless it pulls of a miracle, chances are that it would remain at a distant 4^th in 2017 at a vote share even lower than record low of 2014 share of 7.5%). This makes the contest a 3 way between BSP, BJP and SP.

Strength – Can get a good share of Upper Caste votes if and only if it projects itself as a viable option by projecting a strong upper caste CM face. Congress also has pockets of influence and traction with Muslim voters in Central UP.

Weakness – Hold over Dalits (who are above 20% of UP’s population) has virtually ended with the community migrating towards BSP and SP. Lack of credible OBC leaders and migration of even 2^nd rung OBC leaders to other parties means the party has no traction amongst the largest voting bloc of the state

Opportunity – Congress can accept itself to be a bit player and try to ally with BSP. Instead of trying to be a lead player, it has to act as a tail as it did in Bihar and Tamil Nadu, with both states reviving the almost dead party due to tactical alliances. The GOP can offer pockets of Muslim votes and pockets of Upper Caste votes to BSP and the arithmetic with Dalits could click

Threat – The ever declining voteshare could send the party to oblivion. If muslims and UCs sense that voting for a bit player would be wastage of votes, the 2 might shift enmasse to SP and BJP respectively. Also the rise of BJP nationally and simultaneous fall of Congress can trigger this terminal collapse

2. Samajwadi Party (SP)

The party has a strong presence in the state ever since it was formed, evident from the fact that it has always been in top 2 in each election since then. Even in 2014 at the peak of Modi Tsunami and high anti-incumbency, the party managed to get 22% votes and 5 seats. 

The party did well in 2002 and 2012; each time being the 2^nd largest party in previous elections helped it to get the maximum out of anti-incumbency. However it was never able to get re-elected to the office. Currently the incumbent party in office it has always done well in elections when it fought as challenger and when Congress party collapsed (thereby making it the strongest claimant of Muslim votes).

Strength – Has a pretty strong organization at cadre level. The party does not mind flexing its muscles in elections, especially when it is in power. Party has emphasized mainly on 3 caste-communities, Muslims (19%), Yadavas (9%), Rajputs (8%). In 3 way fight a polarization of this 37% vote bloc has proved to be enough for the party to storm into power. Also the CM who was inexperienced and found wanting in his 1^st 2 years seems to have consolidated his position since the 2014 Modi wave aftershock. Last 2 years has seen a lot of infra related push from the state govt. It has also successfully taken credit of central govt.’s work in the state. The party has focused and tried to appease its targeted votebank of 37% by bringing govt. schemes, appointments and selective law & order enforcement, to ensure a polarization in these vote blocs and has been largely successful in doing so.

Weakness – The party has failed to achieve a just law and order situation. Its advances towards a particular community, relieving culprits from the community from serious crimes such as riots, rapes, murders, extortion etc. has led to a massive undercurrent in the other communities. Preference given to a specific caste group has left out the other backward communities and Dalits in lurch and potentially in an angry state. If the fight becomes 2 way or 4 way instead of 3 way, the party could lose its advantage as both its Rajput and Muslim voters would become vulnerable to poaching

Opportunity – Being in the office with barely 1 year left, the party cannot do much. It can try to form a grand alliance with BSP, RLD and Congress. However other than this, there is a massive anger wave against the govt. for its negligence of none core voters and communities. Hence if they unite in favour of one party, its ouster is a formality. The only opportunity it has is to make Congress irrelevant and ensure that the fight remains 3 way between BSP, BJP and SP so that anti SP votes are divided between BSP and BJP

Threat – Emergence of a mega alliance between Congress, BSP, peace party and some other bit players seems to threaten the core SP votebank. It is possible that Muslims might shift to the mega alliance to keep BJP out of power and also result in the Rajput voters deserting it for BJP. In such a case the fight will become a 2 way with the SP being relegated to the 3^rd place for the 1^st time in Uttar Pradesh

3. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)

Other than 2007, BSP has never been able to form govt. on its own, nor has it emerged as the single largest party. 2007 has been the only year when BSP was able to get a clear majority on its own. Much of it was because it managed to get the swing voters and a small chunk of Upper Caste voters from BJP. This happened because of ample lawlessness that prevailed in the state due to the then SP govt. and BJP was not in a position to win (perception wise).

Strength - Party has a good track record of maintaining Law and Order (which is the biggest issue in the upcoming UP Polls). In Mayawati, the swing voters see a strong and credible CM face to challenge the incumbent govt. which is lacking in the other alternatives (BJP and Congress). Over the last decade or so, Mayawati has played important role in keeping BJP out of power and denying it opportunity to win as and when possible, getting it increased traction among Muslim voters.

Weakness – A small chunk of Upper Caste voters (mainly Brahmins) and Muslims voted for BSP in 2007 but there has been no instance before and after 2007 where these communities voted for the BSP in such large/decisive numbers. So it remains to be seen if 2007 was an aberration and BSP could hold onto voters from beyond its caste groups. Even within the 21% strong Dalit communities, not all the castes whole heartedly support the BSP and it usually gets 50 to 70% of the Dalit votes. It has a much smaller core votebank to start with unlike SP and BJP. Historically BSP has been an overestimated party by pollsters (with the exception of 2007). Hence much of BSP’s anticipated comeback would depend on whether it can attract non Dalit votes (UCs and Muslims) as it did in 2007

Opportunity – As explained earlier UP voters have low threshold for any party. BJP got a massive mandate in 2014 while SP in 2012 so 2017 could well belong to BSP by logic of turns and swings; more so because it has the most credible face among the 3 challengers to the incumbent govt. If BSP allies with Congress, RLD, Peace Party, AIMIM and some of the other small parties, it can get some of the UC votes, muslim votes and Jat votes and that in a 3 way fight should lead it home as it did in 2007. Although BSP would have to ensure that it contests on atleast 85% of the seats and does not leave more than 15% of the seats for its smaller allies like Congress, RLD etc as these parties would not have a very good strike rate. BSP’s alliance would be mostly to get the few % transferrable votes of these small parties and not to make them win seats which they cannot win

Threat – Even beyond Dalit, UC and Muslim voters BSP has nil traction among OBC voters which form the largest voting bloc in the state. Muslims and UC voters too, have never voted Mayawati enbloc. She got good chunks of them in 2007 but that was not the largest by any stretch as other parties SP and BJP got more Muslim and UC voters respectively than BSP did even in the 2007 elections. As SP and BJP are perceived to be much stronger players now, UCs might not go with BSP and prefer to side with BJP. Fallout of this would be Muslims will side with SP to stop a strong and resurgent BJP coming to power. OBCs, except for Yadavas might side with BJP as they feel sidelined with SP (a yadava-muslim only party) and cannot side with BSP which is still perceived to be a Dalit exclusive party in their view.

4. Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP)

BJP’s rise in early 90s in the state coincided with the fall of Congress. At the back of RJB movement, the party successfully ate into core votebank of Congress and made them its own. BJP has got more than 305 and even 405 votes on occasions, a feat matched by no other party in the state. At this stage the BJP has successfully sucked up the Hindu votebank of Congress and in last elections, a portion of Dalit voters of BSP and a big portion of Non Yadav OBCs from the SP. The upcoming elections is a story of how much can BJP hold (or not hold) from its historic high of ~44% votes it managed in 2014.

Strength – Modi Wave which helped BJP storm 73 out of 80 seats and helped it to come up 2^nd in the remaining 7 seats has still not receded completely. The undercurrent is still there. BJP after 2014 is a strong player and hence the UC voters, anti SP voters, anti BSP voters could well side with it due to it being the de facto opposition and natural claimant of these votes. Besides, the blatant negligence of Uttar Pradesh voters and treatment of Hindus as 3^rd rate citizens by incumbent govt has polarized the elections religiously which could go in BJP’s favour as the BSP and Congress are too scared to talk against this blatant discrimination against Hindus.

Weakness – BJP doesn’t have a strong organization to match the might of SP/BSP. Muslim, Yadav, Jatav Dalits are strongly bound to SP/BSP. Hence any potential vote BJP might hope to get must come from the remaining 65% voters. It starts at a natural disadvantage and hence needs to get most of the votes among some of the communities. There is no statewide leader with the popularity matching to Mayawati or Akhilesh Yadav. Kalyan Singh used to be popular in the 90s but the hour is late for him now. Post Kalyan Singh, BJP experimented with UC leadership, joint leadership (by projecting a galaxy of leaders) and failed. Lack of leadership or projecting several leaders could hamper its chances. BJP could lose focus by not concentrating on the non-Yadav OBCs, non-Jatav Dalits and non-Rajput UCs and instead trying to pamper each and every voting bloc, thereby not creating any core and differentiating factor. Finally BJP could risk making this poll a mandate on Modi, giving it a national colour in a state which has very low threshold and tolerance for incumbent parties. The low activity of most of these 73 MPs in last 2 years could not go down well with voters if the election is nationalized. BJP might take this risk to count on Modi’s image and ignore prevailing local issues which are extremely bad law and order, massive discrimination against Hindus and other sundry development issues.

Opportunity – BJP is in pole position and hence can take the risk to experiment. It has to maintain the local flavor of the elections and announce a credible CM face from any of the non-Yadav OBCs, non-Jatav Dalits and non-Rajput UCs. As of now Keshav Maurya seems to be the best bet.  Additionally if BJP also announces a Deputy CM like Dinesh Sharma (a 1^st in strategy) then it would have ensured fair representation to both OBCs and UCs. In addition 110-120 tickets to Brahmins, 40-50 to rest UCs. 150-160 tickets to non-Yadav OBCs and 60-70 tickets to non Jatav Dalits and the rest to other communities will give a proper social coalition message and BJP could romp home. BJP must also in words and actions show it cares for secularism and speak as well as act against targeted discrimination of Hindus by SP, BSP and Congress. Law & Order, Anti Appeasement and naming CM, Dy. CM as above could help BJP match its 2014 performance. Lack of all of these could make BJP plummet down to 2012 levels.

Threat – BJP has 73 lawmakers from UP in the Parliament, yet very few of them seem to be active. Lack of empathy of the party leadership both 1^st rung as well as 2^nd rung on issues of law and order, massive discrimination against Hindus could well paint BJP as an opportunist party which uses Hindus only during elections . Additionally a grand mega alliance of SP, BSP, RLD and Congress could create a Bihar like situation where BJP might struggle to overcome sheer arithmetic. However this seems unlikely and BJP if it falls could be due to reasons mentioned before that.

Situation as on June 2016

Overall BJP is in the pole position, despite witnessing a significant corrosion in its voteshare of 2014. As per my number crunching, some feedback from ground and a few opinion polls, this is the expected voteshares of each party and since more than 9 months remain for the polls, a lot could change depending on prospective alliances, CM figures, election issues and their respective handling and ticket distribution to candidates.

BJP – 220 (33.5%) 

SP – 88 (25%)

BSP – 73 (24.5%)

Congress – 11 (6.5%)

RLD – 5 (2.5%)

Others 7 (8%)

Why BJP is still the favorite to win Bihar 2015?

Media is buzzing with rumours that BJP campaign in Bihar has faltered and the Mahagathbandhan is on its way to victory after the 1^st 2 phases.  For the analysis sake, let’s assume that in the worst case scenario NDA might win 30 seats, MGB 50 and 1 seat is won by others/independents. This gap is huge and if one were to extrapolate this, it transforms into a big victory for MGB. However that is not the case. Each region in Bihar votes differently and has different issues. Minorities are more concentrated in the seats which would go to polls in the 5^th phase, whereas phase3 and 4 which lie mostly in the Tirhut, Bhojpur and Magadh belt, does not have as high minority population, so MGB does not start with any distinct advantage. If one goes by the Lok Sabha number, BJP led NDA led in approximately 60 out of the 105 seats which are going into the polls in the next 2 phases. This lead was considerably high, even when compared to the combined figure of JDU and RJD-Congress. Following factors would swell this lead even more.

Manjhi – Manjhi has emerged as a Pan Bihar leader of Mahadalits (who account for 10% voters of Bihar). It was believed that majority of Mahadalits who support Manjhi voted for JDU in 2014, so any vote which Manjhi brings, is at the cost of JDU. His effect was highest in Central Bihar or the Magadh region; however even in the remaining phases, Manjhi could bring 2-2.5 % of Mussahar (Mahadalit) voters to the NDA fold. Since all of it would be at the expense of JDU, a 2 to 2.5% voteshare would result in an effective 4 to 5% swing in these 105 seats where BJP was already leading in about 60 seats, even after combined voteshare of Janta allies from the 2014 data.

Vikas-Jungle Raj paradox – Lalu has made many regressive comments and even though while his voters have consolidated behind Nitish, Nitish’s voters (except for those who would vote on caste basis), would not be inclined to vote for Lalu. A recent study by survey agency CSDS-Lokniti says that 1/3^rd of Nitish voters were wary of voting for Lalu. Assuming that Nitish’s party is fighting in only 101 seats and remaining 142 by allies, it is safe to assume that 1/3rd of Nitish’s voters (pre dominantly those who are impressed with his pro development image) would not vote for Lalu or Congress in these seats. This 1/3rd of votes comes to around 2.63% which again translates to a huge swing of more than 5.5% in these 105 seats. (Nitish had almost 16% votes in Lok Sabha, assuming Manjhi took away 2.5%. Of the remaining 13.5%, 7.89% would be on those seats where RJD-Congress are fighting). Hence it is safe to assume that BJP and its allies will make mincemeat of RJD and Congress and even JDU because JDU is not really strong north of the Ganges

Anti MY consolidation – A talk of MY consolidation is already felt on ground. Recent events of RJD workers beating up workers from EBC and Dalit communities for voting to BJP has ensured that weaker voters do not express their choices. A fear of Jungle Raj would ensure that these voters consolidate in favour of BJP and its allies.

Hence it is safe to assume that the number of seats which NDA should win out of this 105 in the next 2 phases will be 80 in the worst case scenario, taking into consideration all the above factors and swings. With 30 seats (minimum value) in 1st to phases, it makes to 110. Hence NDA just needs to win 12 more out of the 57 seats in the final phase to form the government. 5tth Phase is supposedly a weak area for BJP but with cities like Madhubani, Darbhanga, Katihar, Purnea and the effect of Pappu Yadav in that area, BJP is expected to win a minimum 16 of those 57, propelling it to 126, 4 ahead of the magic figure.

Punters prediction – Punters are backing BJP led alliance to win this election and even after the 1^st 2 phases, their bets are with BJP. Given the past record, punters have been successful in picking out the winners accurately more than 90% of times. Going by their track record, chances of BJP winning these elections are 9 times higher than it losing.

Overrated issues

Bhagwat’s reservation – It would do some damage but not enough to propel Nitish to victory. Even during Lok Sabha, BJP leader CP Thakur talked about ending reservation but it did not damage BJP’s prospects even in a minute way. For an average Bihari, Thakur is far more popular thann Bhagwat and hence damage due to the comments, even if they have done some damage, seem to be exaggerated

No face for CM – With Narendra Modi as face, BJP appeals more to the EBC
voters, who would ultimately provide the decisive push to the winning alliance
with over 21% votes in the state

Negative politics – Lalu is a polarizing figure. Attacking him could mean BJP would lose out on 20-25% Yadav votes (Rest ~70% Yadavs would go with Lalu anyways as per the historical polling data) but this Jungle Raj paranoia would help them consolidate the rest of EBC voters, who are over 21% in the state. Hence it was always about losing 2-3% Yadav votes to aim for 15-20% of EBC voters

Beef controversy – This has affected BJP to an extent but the damage has been neutralized by Lalu’s self-goal comments on beef. It was evident by his frustration post the comments. Various ground reports from Yadav dominated Madhubani, Hajipur (district where Lalu’s both sons are fighting), Gopalganj etc point to this.

Whatever be the case, it appears that concerted efforts are being carried out by large sections of Indian Media to show that BJP has already lost the election, probably to influence the voters. Sudden bursts of ‘Dalits under attack in BJP ruled Haryana’, ‘Liberty under threat’ appear to be a part of this campaign. While more than 2/3^rd of the seats are still to undergo polling, naysayers have already written off winning chances of BJP. Will they eat humble pie yet again like in 2014 and in numerous instances before and after that or will they prevail, like they prevailed in Delhi 2015? Only time will tell. Come 8^th November, one of the most important elections in the Indian history will mend and break many hearts. Without doubt, this election is one of the most important, more than even the Lok Sabha 2014 as it will set many trends irrespective of which side the result falls.

How Media's lies created Anti Modi perception in the first bout

Earlier in February this year, a retired old Kannada gentleman who had been voting the BJP for over 3 decades was not a BJP fan anymore. When I asked him of his agony in such a short span of time (BJP had been in power for a little over 7 months then), his response was that PM Modi, who he held very high in regards was silent on key issues like; Gharwapasi, attacks on churches, frequent trips to abroad, his expensive 10 lakhs suit etc. I was surprised not because he was angry with Modi govt. but because the so called 'prominent' issues which he mentioned, were not at all prominent as these were non existent and unheard issues. There can be some valid criticism of Modi govt. but none of those propagated by Media are valid. During the 2nd world war, Nazis had formulated this theory: "Speak a lie a 1000 times and it becomes the truth" and our commies back home have mastered this art. Indian Media, which is dominated by Commies have used this art to perfection.

In this blog i will not talk about what are the prominent lies which media has propagated, especially in the last 14 months. This has been covered extensively and exposed by many. I will cover the more important 'how they do it' part'.

1. Pre Emptive Strikes - This is more of a praise than a blame. Media Trolls (or celebrities) have been vociferous in creating noises for issues, even before it has happened. Do remember all the fear mongering before 2014 elections about Modi being anti minority and him being an executioner. This has continued and infact multiplied after Modi took power. These Trolls would create sufficient noise and give ample coverage to ensure that the actual issue never takes place. For example, filling of important govt. posts by RSS functionaries. This noise was being created from Day 1, even when there was no evidence that there had been a systematic inclusion of Right wing intellectuals to important posts. Same went for Media's so called freedom. The attack on churches was a malicious attempt to paint the govt. with an Anti Minority brush and show that Christians were being persecuted. Although there has been not a single religion or faith based attack on any christian. So Indian media has successfully executed this pre emptive strike strategy
2. Fake Propaganda - Modi wore a 10 lakh rupees suit (did he?).  Or a fraud claim by The Hindu which said that Baba Ramdev sold Ebola cure. Perhaps most of the people would know that these news along with many others were lies, but that is not even 1% of the whole story. So what's the whole story. See the nature of the fake news which is being propagated. So if a journalist like Sagarika Ghose asks an economic expert Bhagwati, about rise of Radical Hindutva post May2014, you can safely assume that she is running an agenda. The type of news which are being spun and twisted, mostly belong to the PM or his party and it is safe to say that they are deliberate. The Media, by and large is running a propaganda and it seems quite intentional. It is not for no reason that Lalit Modi-Sushma story is given weeks of vociferous coverage but Lalit Modi - Gandhi/Vadra fmaily meetings are hushed into oblivion.
3. Character Assasination - This is an old trick of commies but for some reason they weren't using it on the Social Media activists. Better late than never. Media Trolls like Rajdeep, Vir, NDTV hacks and other so called celebrities like Chetan Bhagat, Sagarika Ghose, who I have termed as Internet Bimbos have coined filthy abusive terms like 'Bhakt', 'Internet Hindus', 'Hindu Trolls' etc to coverup for their own goof ups. I have mentioned earlier as well, the intent and personality is insignificant. The content and message is significant. However even if I discount this, more than 90% of the accused Trolls are non abusive. They are the ones who ask tough, inconvenient and uncomfortable questions to Internet Bimbos. Naturally these activists are blocked, vilified. This attack on pre dominantly Modi supporters is systematic and well orchestrated. 
4. Ab Auctoritate - This means argument of authority. This ploy is being used by Media quite often. They would call someone who is halloed and has considerable authority and appeal among the viewers. He typically represents the Left wing and his thoughts are shown as too holy to be questioned. So if you see Amartya Sen or Hilary Clinton hopping TV studios going on a bashing spree and puking lies then do not be surprised. You are just being attacked by the Ab Auctoritate strategy. Once again, see the message than the messenger. Just because the person expressing the message has  a high authority does not mean he has to be correct. Let those experts' opinions remain opinions and not gospel truths.

There are many more ways which Indian Media ahs adopted, however the more important part comes to the point, what is BJP/Modi govt. doing to counter this. If not for the govt's leniency, none of the above would have happened. A look at some of the stupid and dumb policies adopted by the government of the day, which they should totally avoid.

1. Appeasing the Commies - Like the previous NDA govt. this govt. is indulging in a commie appeasing spree and in the race to get a 'liberal' certificate from the Commies, it is compromising on its ideals which is both unfortunate and disgusting. Be it asserting commie thinkers of past or adulating them with awards and recognition or paying heed to them in some (if not all) matters.
2. Inaction against Media Trolls and Internet Bimbos - Even the most liberal nations have strict laws against misreporting but not India. In India reports who indulge in paid/brokered news are recognized as celebrities. It has been already established that Media Trolls and Internet Bimbos run fake stories deliberately and so they must be dealt with harsh punishments. Severe lawsuits, captivity and even execution (only if it is to save the lives of masses) should be adopted to silence the Internet Bimbos and Media Trolls from lying continuously. Sushma Swaraj, Smriti Irani, Narendra Modi, Shivraj Chouhan, Amit Shah et al might be victims of continuous Media misreporting but they deserve little sympathyfor their inaction against these Media Trolls.
3. No due for supporters -  Many supporters have complained that after winning elections, they haven't got their due. Some others have complained that their views, suggestions and opinions are no longer given any importance. A disheartened core supporter base is not very likely to defend the party against this propaganda. This lack of motivation has forced many to stay silent during this Commie onslaught.
4. Inaction on Corrupticians - One can only feel miserable if he is being accused of corruption by one of the most allegedly corrupt parties in the history Congress or its allies like AAP, TMC, NCP etc. Again the fault lies with BJP which has treated the so called corrupts like Vadra, Pawar, Chavhan etc with kids gloves. There hasn't been any action, even on a symbolic basis to show to the public. So it has to result in someone like Rahul Gandhi or Arvind Kejriwal accusing BJP politicians to be corrupt.
5. Institutions Cleansing - None of the important institutions are being cleansed. All those places infested with Commies continue to hold forte. Even though the govt. has bene criticized for something which has not been done, when it comes to actions, the govt. has failed. Except for one or two tokenism, most of the positions continue to be ruled by Commies who not only propagate their views but also abuse the same govt. which nurtures them.
6. Regular U Turns - One Rank One pension for all is an emotional issue as it involves war veterans but BJP's silence on this is unforgivable. They might have some plans but not making it public shows them in bad light. Not releasing classified documents on Netaji's death. Henderson's reports on China war, not rolling back or cutting off Economy bleeding schemes like MNREGA. U Turns on GST. Black Money, no action against Vadra, TMC, SP, AAP and other allegedly corrupt parties. There are a horde of issues where BJP made a miserable U turn. Co incidentally Mr. Arun Jaitely current Finance Minister and former Defense Minister was at the epicentre of all these U Turns.

It appears that Media which had failed to do anything between 2002 and 2014 has been fairly successful in creating an Anti Modi perception all around. Prior to May 2014, its supporters saved the day for BJP. Will Modi govt. do enough to undo the damage? The 1st bout has been won by the Indian Media, backed by commies. Will the government take this as a wake up call or will it prefer to die down the  2004 way?

Tick tock tick....... time is running out for Modi Sarkaar

Chetan Bhagat is the biggest ‘Bhakt’ as per his definition

At the risk of being repetitive, I would state that Chetan Bhagat is the most perfect example of a ‘Bhakt’ as he meets the following 4 necessary/sufficient conditions more than anyone

1.      He is a male (don’t know if he has any other covert gender)

2.      He is weak in English. He might have written a few English novels but mind you they have more grammatical mistakes than the number of copies they were sold. He suffers from an intrinsic inferiority complex as he admits in the article to which this response is written. He is ashamed of admitting the glorious past of ancient India as he might be mocked at, in his elite social circles for being a ‘proud’ Indian.

3.      He is as sexist and abusive towards woman as a worst man can be. His article, mocking women who preferred to be housewives (read women who make chapattis) draw criticism from all corners.

4.      Finally, he is someone who is ashamed of his country, leaves no stone unturned to paint a fake picture showing his country in the wrong light and is both ignorant and ashamed of Hindi and anything remotely related to Hinduism.

Way to treat women?

He again shows sexism when he talks about “proper way to behave with women”. I mean should his ‘bhakts’ behave with men differently from how they behave with women? So as per Bhagat, it is perfectly okay to give seventh hell’s abuse to a man, because a man can take it.

Hiding behind Low IQ Celebrity Trolls

If you need to hide behind someone of the intellectual level of Sagarika Ghose, who is extremely low in IQ but really high in propaganda, then it shows both your moral as well as intellectual bankruptcy. Time and again Sagarika Ghose has been caught red handed for lying, making contradictory statements on an issue, showing strong inclination towards a political party and ideology. She might have good English but when it comes to substance, Ghose’s articles and views would make a filthy garbage bin look like pure gold, in comparison. Shruti Seth likewise, other than her cute smile and some dumb TV appearances has little to offer on intellect. These elitists might be high and heavy on money and fame but when it comes to intellect, I would be willing to put my goat to compete with these self proclaimed intellectuals and it is my belief that the goat will win with flying colours. Mr. Bhagat what you have forgotten is that the message is important. It is not important who presents the argument, whether ‘Internet Hindus’ or Internet Bimbos like you or Sagarika. The real important thing is the message and the content of the argument. Play on the content, not the poster. Men and women die but the message (if worthy) lives through eternity.

Blind Support

If someone believes that Modi’s supporters on social media have been blindly supporting Modi then he/she is blinder than the word ‘blind’. Most, if not all of his known supporters in Social Media have been chasing Mr. Modi and have been asking him tough questions on his pre poll promises. A quick glance on Twitter Timelines of his know supporters (anon handles discounted) would reveal that these supporters who are wrongfully termed as ‘Bhakts’ by Internet Bimbos, have played the actual role of constructive opposition which this country so desperately needed. Also the issues raised by these people have been far more meaningful than the fake issues raised by mediocre opposition and Indian Media on an agenda

Fascist Mindset

Expression of free speech is our fundamental right and some celebrity trolls creating noise about it does not take this right away from an average Indian. You and your biases aside, no one can take away this right from Indians. Sagarika Ghose might have coined a farcial term ‘Internet Hindus’ but it is because of these social media users, her article gets hits and views and low IQ Internet Bimbos like her stay in business despite writing trash and junk

Ignore You

A part of me would urge everyone to ignore your article and the trash talk you posted in Dainik Bhaskar today. However I know that you have a reasonable Social Media clout and you can influence opinions, so it was important to nullify your lies and there was only 1 way to do it; to speak the truth.

You may be a bestselling author with lakhs of copies sold across the country but do not forget that we live in a country which gave 67 seats to AAP and 60 years to Congress after being ruled by much a smaller country for centuries; so numbers do not necessarily tell the true story. Perhaps you have more in common with Arvind Kejriwal than just an IIT degree.

Sincerely

Not a ‘Bhakt’

BJP has made many mistakes but allying with PDP isn't one of them

PDP-BJP alliance would be no different from an India-Pakistan alliance or a USA-USSR alliance. 2 extremely opposite poles but bound by a common axis. Many BJP supporters would have been perplexed by this decision. PDP's soft stand on terrorism and separatism is well known and the incumbent CM of the alliance made his intentions well known by his acts one after the another. He is clearly working on his agenda but what of BJP? BJP seems to lose the popular support of educated masses who are largely against any soft stand on terrorism or the draconian and controversial Article 370. BJP has made far too many goof ups and mistakes in its short rule of 9 months but sharing power with PDP in Jammu and Kashmir is definitely not one of them. I would try to list down a few reasons as to why it is really important for BJP to be in power in the northern state

Security - India has been attacked countless times through the northern corridor. It is important that the party which is ruling the centre, rules the state as well. It would be foolhardy to believe that India's incumbent NSA and former ace spy Ajit Doval wouldn't have had a say in this. He is a man who works behind the scenes. In his scheme of things it would have been really important to share power in Jammu and Kashmir to implement is plans in a prudent and pragmatic way, even if it came at the cost of BJP losing some popular support. Most (if not all) of BJP's supporters are not as wise and well informed as Ajit Doval. What he is doing is probably for the best and needs support, not outrage

Balance - As PDP represents 1 pole, BJP represents the other. With BJP in the alliance, the PDP's adventurous steps, like cosying up to separatists, appeasing Pro pakistani elements will be kept in check. Mufti govt. would realize the resistance he faces, as compared to the widespread support, he would have enjoyed from another posisble ally Congress in his adventurism. BJP was fast to dismiss Mufti's claims of terrorists having a role to play in free and fair elections in the valley.

Relevance -  PDP has a choice. It can choose NC or Congress or both and still keep on doing things which are not perceived to be in India's interests. So BJP's presence in this alliance is irrelevant as they would not have any control over this. PDP can well ally with Congress and still do those acts. BJP and its supporters can do nothing but gulp these things. However with BJP in power, it can pinch PDP regularly, act as a nuisance if not a strong resistance, which would ultimately bring down such embarrassing moments and possibly PDP may start behaving properly.

History - BJP, (even under [perceived softer leadership of Vajpayee) played a key role in neutralizing terrorism in Punjab, Assam and some of the other north eastern states. A 'more aggressive'  Modi would be equally good if not better than Vajpayee. They need to be given some time. Terrorism took some time to fade out in both Punjab and Assam. If the same can be done in Jammu and Kashmir, it would be an amazing feat.

The surface of the ocean is vast, but it is not the only truth. The great depths of truth, still lay undiscovered before everyone. Time needs to be given. It is a sensitive issue and requires the support. There are a LOT of issues where BJP needs to be cornered and questioned (not enough action on Economic front, no strong action on Corrupt and corruptions, adopting double standards on Secularism, using Congres sbrand of appeasement etc) but this is not one of those.

Delhi Polls - Why the Media backed 'Opinion' Polls are Misleading?

It is as if AAP has got hold of some 'Bramhastra'. The party which was predicted to go into an oblivion post Delhi Assembly elections 2015, not 2 months ago, is now suddenly being hailed as a sure shot winner by its all time Cheer Leaders, the Indian mainstream Media. What exactly changed in the last 2 months? What trick did BJP miss? I would try to analyze how much of it is true and trustworthy, but before all of this a short note on who this election is really fought between.

Battle Royale

It will be quite incorrect to say this fight is between BJP and AAP (not because Congress is a non entity here). It would also be incorrect to say that this fight is between 2 individuals Bedi vs Kejriwal or Modi vs AAP or Kejriwal vs Shah etc. In real terms, BJP had lost the fight even before it began. BJP had no answer to AAP's carpet bombing. Thousands of energized AAP volunteers swarmed the city and visited every potential household, they assessed, might vote for them. In contrast BJP was relying on Modi rallies and eventually paid a good price for sitting idle. However their supporters were not silent and campaigned aggressively both in Social media and on Ground. On the other hand, AAP, despite having a strong campaign was not taken well by the voters. They had help, from the Media. Media played one giant role in negating the perception of 'Bhagoda' about Kejriwal. Moments back an 'independent' journalist in ABP news said AAP completed all its promises (free bijli, free water) except Lokpal and when it could not pass Lokpal, it left the govt. due to moral reasons. Now how true is that? Did AAP not leave for Kejriwal's Prime Ministerial ambitions? So in a way it would not be wrong to say that in effect, Delhi elections are between Indian Media and BJP supporters with AAP and BJP acting as the face of these two entities.

Lutyens dominated Media supports AAP as it is their last resort to undermine their nemesis, Modi. Not for no reasons have these opinion polls sprung up, hailing Kejriwal to be heading for a sweeping victory. Let's analyze these polls from an electoral viewpoint.

Story the numbers tell

How did the parties fair in last 2 polls
AS 2013 - BJP 33%, AAP 30%, Congress 25%
LS 2014 - BJP 47%, AAP 33%, Congress 15%

To naked eyes, it may appear that both BJP and AAP gained at the expense of Congress and Others, with BJP gaining more in the Lok Sabha elections, compared to the Assembly. However this is not true. Various sampling experiments reveal that AAP lost a SIGNIFICANT chunk of voters to BJP, especially the educated and/or middle class voters who were fed up with the AAP theatrics. This could be as high as 10% of the voters base. Some of these would also include voters who voted Kejriwal for CM but wanted Modi as PM. So the new figures should have been BJP 43%, AAP 20% and Congress 25% but the story does not end here. BJP would also gain some votes from Congress (~2% due to National Anti Incumbency) and Others (~2% due to BJP being a National party). On the other hand, many Congress floater voters (who were/are anti BJP) would not have voted AAP in Assembly thinking it to be a wastage would have considered AAP as a more viable Anti BJP alternative in Lok Sabha, so as high as 8% of them would migrate to AAP. AAP would also gain 5% from the 'Others' section as historically, these voters were neither fond of BJP nor Congress. So rightfully the number read 47%, 33% and 15%. So it is conclusive that AAP did lose a huge chunk of votes in the Lok Sabha.

The Loyal Voter Base

Each party has a dedicated votebase.
BJP - If one analyzes BJP's voteshare across elections, it has hovered around 33% to 52% in last few terms, and never went below 33% (at the peak of AAP wave) in the last two and a half decades decade. So it is safe to assume, BJP has a loyal vote base of 30% in Delhi

Congress - Congress has degrown since 2009 Lok Sabha elections in Delhi. Their low of 25% in Assembly 2013 was soon eclipsed by a new low of 15% in Lok Sabha 2014. Despite that fact that Congress was a loser in Assembly and a sure shot loser in 2014, 15% still held on to it. However some of these may realize that voting a losing entity is going to be futile and except for a few scattered pockets, Congress' story is all but over this time, so atleast a 1/3rd of the voters, the educated and the less emotional one would desert Congress, pegged at around 5%. So the loyal votebase for Congress is 10%

AAP - There are very few elections to analyze AAP's loyal base but the 2 elections DO give a story. As mentioned earlier, a huge chunk (as high as 10%) deserted AAP in Lok Sabha. However 20% of them still hung on to the party, despite its failures, theatrics and over ambitiousness. So AAP loyal vote base forms of 20%

Others - Small parties like BSP, INLD, SP etc have their pockets of influence in the city. Add to it the independents. The others vote share was around 5% in Lok Sabha and 12% in Assembly, which is understandable given that voters tend to polarize towards known parties in Lok Sabha elections than in Assembly. Also due to the higher number of seats in Assembly (70 to 7), the number of Independents with localized influence increase in an Assembly election. Hence the others would have a Loyal vote base of 10%.

Total Loyal Vote Base = 30% + 10% + 20% + 10% = 70%

The Floater Voter Base

These are the voters who would decide the fate of this election or any election for that matter. In 2013 and 2014 and even before that, these voters have shifted their allegiances across parties. But who are these voters and who are they likely to vote this time and for what reason? Let us try to further segregate these voters into segments and try to analyze which way they would vote.

1. Young Urban women (3%) - Aged between 18 to 35, they are approximately 3% in number. This does not mean that there are just 5% women in Delhi between the age of 18 and 35. This means that those women who do not have any party loyalty are approximately 3%
Who did they vote in 2013? - Possibly AAP
Who will they vote in 2014? - Possibly BJP
Who will they vote in 2015? - Possibly BJP
Driving Reason - Face of Kiran Bedi and issues related to women
Is there a swing compared to 2014 - No

2. Non Anti BJP Minorities (6%) - This group comprises mostly of voters who are not hostile to BJP and can vote to any party which they perceive would raise there issues
Who did they vote in 2013? AAP, BJP, Congress in that order
Who did they vote in 2014? BJP, AAP, Congress in that order
Who will they vote in 2015? AAP BJP Congress in that order
Driving Reason - BJP govt. did some work for them bu not enough to be perceived
Is there a swing compared to 2014 - Yes

3 Rural Settlers population, working class (5%) - This is the group which comprises of rural class (excluding above 2 categories)
Who did they vote in 2013? Congress, BJP, AAP in that order
Who did they vote in 2014? BJP, Congress, AAP in that order
Who will they vote in 2015? BJP, AAP, Congress in that order
Driving Reason - BJP's promise of rehab and growing pro poor image
Is there a swing compared to 2014 - Yes for AAP, No for BJP

4 Poor and weaker sections (11%) - The group of people who represent the poorest of the poor who lack even the basic facilities.
Who did they vote in 2013? AAP, Congress, BJP in that order
Who did they vote in 2014? AAP, BJP, Congress in that order
Who will they vote in 2015? AAP, BJP, Congress in that order
Driving Reason - AAP has been successful in convincing this set of voters and hence will get a major chunk of it
Is there a swing compared to 2014 - No

5 Others (5%) - The remaining population who are mostly in the outer areas of Delhi.
Who did they vote in 2013? BJP, Congress, AAP in that order
Who did they vote in 2014? BJP, Congress, AAP in that order
Who will they vote in 2015? BJP AAP, Congress in that order
Driving Reason - AAP was limited to the city region in 2013 but has now penetrated into the outskirts
Is there a swing compared to 2014 - Yes

The above 5 categories are mutually exclusive among themselves and one is not present in the 2nd. However these 5 categories are not exhaustive and would also be present in the 'loyal' voter base of the respective parties.

The partywise takeway of floater base would be

BJP - 1.5%+2%+2.5%+3%+2.5% = 11.5%
Congress - 0%+1%+0.5%+0.5%+0.5% = 2.5%
AAP - 1.5%+3%+2%+7.5%+2% = 16%

AAP would walk away with the majority of floater vote base as per my analysis, BJP a close 2nd and Congress not in the picture. The total voteshare would hence look like
BJP - 30+11.5 = 41.5%
Congress - 10+2.5 = 12.5%
AAP - 20+16 = 36%
Others - 10%

At a this vote share (BJP 41.5%, AAP, 36%, Congress 12.5%, Others 10%), the seats tally should hover around
BJP - 50-54
AAP - 12-16
Congress - 1-5
Others - 0-2

Hence the Media run Opinion Polls with the story of sudden surge of Kejriwal should be taken with a sack of salt.

To conclude, this is just an individual analysis without backing of any segregated sample survey. So it is possible that the analysis might not hold true during the counting day and results are quite different from what is stated here. However if logic is to be believed, the results should not be much different from what is stated here. What happens eventually will be known that day, for Indian voters have a knack of giving surprising results.