Why BJP is still the favorite to win Bihar 2015?

Media is buzzing with rumours that BJP campaign in Bihar has faltered and the Mahagathbandhan is on its way to victory after the 1^st 2 phases.  For the analysis sake, let’s assume that in the worst case scenario NDA might win 30 seats, MGB 50 and 1 seat is won by others/independents. This gap is huge and if one were to extrapolate this, it transforms into a big victory for MGB. However that is not the case. Each region in Bihar votes differently and has different issues. Minorities are more concentrated in the seats which would go to polls in the 5^th phase, whereas phase3 and 4 which lie mostly in the Tirhut, Bhojpur and Magadh belt, does not have as high minority population, so MGB does not start with any distinct advantage. If one goes by the Lok Sabha number, BJP led NDA led in approximately 60 out of the 105 seats which are going into the polls in the next 2 phases. This lead was considerably high, even when compared to the combined figure of JDU and RJD-Congress. Following factors would swell this lead even more.

Manjhi – Manjhi has emerged as a Pan Bihar leader of Mahadalits (who account for 10% voters of Bihar). It was believed that majority of Mahadalits who support Manjhi voted for JDU in 2014, so any vote which Manjhi brings, is at the cost of JDU. His effect was highest in Central Bihar or the Magadh region; however even in the remaining phases, Manjhi could bring 2-2.5 % of Mussahar (Mahadalit) voters to the NDA fold. Since all of it would be at the expense of JDU, a 2 to 2.5% voteshare would result in an effective 4 to 5% swing in these 105 seats where BJP was already leading in about 60 seats, even after combined voteshare of Janta allies from the 2014 data.

Vikas-Jungle Raj paradox – Lalu has made many regressive comments and even though while his voters have consolidated behind Nitish, Nitish’s voters (except for those who would vote on caste basis), would not be inclined to vote for Lalu. A recent study by survey agency CSDS-Lokniti says that 1/3^rd of Nitish voters were wary of voting for Lalu. Assuming that Nitish’s party is fighting in only 101 seats and remaining 142 by allies, it is safe to assume that 1/3rd of Nitish’s voters (pre dominantly those who are impressed with his pro development image) would not vote for Lalu or Congress in these seats. This 1/3rd of votes comes to around 2.63% which again translates to a huge swing of more than 5.5% in these 105 seats. (Nitish had almost 16% votes in Lok Sabha, assuming Manjhi took away 2.5%. Of the remaining 13.5%, 7.89% would be on those seats where RJD-Congress are fighting). Hence it is safe to assume that BJP and its allies will make mincemeat of RJD and Congress and even JDU because JDU is not really strong north of the Ganges

Anti MY consolidation – A talk of MY consolidation is already felt on ground. Recent events of RJD workers beating up workers from EBC and Dalit communities for voting to BJP has ensured that weaker voters do not express their choices. A fear of Jungle Raj would ensure that these voters consolidate in favour of BJP and its allies.

Hence it is safe to assume that the number of seats which NDA should win out of this 105 in the next 2 phases will be 80 in the worst case scenario, taking into consideration all the above factors and swings. With 30 seats (minimum value) in 1st to phases, it makes to 110. Hence NDA just needs to win 12 more out of the 57 seats in the final phase to form the government. 5tth Phase is supposedly a weak area for BJP but with cities like Madhubani, Darbhanga, Katihar, Purnea and the effect of Pappu Yadav in that area, BJP is expected to win a minimum 16 of those 57, propelling it to 126, 4 ahead of the magic figure.

Punters prediction – Punters are backing BJP led alliance to win this election and even after the 1^st 2 phases, their bets are with BJP. Given the past record, punters have been successful in picking out the winners accurately more than 90% of times. Going by their track record, chances of BJP winning these elections are 9 times higher than it losing.

Overrated issues

Bhagwat’s reservation – It would do some damage but not enough to propel Nitish to victory. Even during Lok Sabha, BJP leader CP Thakur talked about ending reservation but it did not damage BJP’s prospects even in a minute way. For an average Bihari, Thakur is far more popular thann Bhagwat and hence damage due to the comments, even if they have done some damage, seem to be exaggerated

No face for CM – With Narendra Modi as face, BJP appeals more to the EBC
voters, who would ultimately provide the decisive push to the winning alliance
with over 21% votes in the state

Negative politics – Lalu is a polarizing figure. Attacking him could mean BJP would lose out on 20-25% Yadav votes (Rest ~70% Yadavs would go with Lalu anyways as per the historical polling data) but this Jungle Raj paranoia would help them consolidate the rest of EBC voters, who are over 21% in the state. Hence it was always about losing 2-3% Yadav votes to aim for 15-20% of EBC voters

Beef controversy – This has affected BJP to an extent but the damage has been neutralized by Lalu’s self-goal comments on beef. It was evident by his frustration post the comments. Various ground reports from Yadav dominated Madhubani, Hajipur (district where Lalu’s both sons are fighting), Gopalganj etc point to this.

Whatever be the case, it appears that concerted efforts are being carried out by large sections of Indian Media to show that BJP has already lost the election, probably to influence the voters. Sudden bursts of ‘Dalits under attack in BJP ruled Haryana’, ‘Liberty under threat’ appear to be a part of this campaign. While more than 2/3^rd of the seats are still to undergo polling, naysayers have already written off winning chances of BJP. Will they eat humble pie yet again like in 2014 and in numerous instances before and after that or will they prevail, like they prevailed in Delhi 2015? Only time will tell. Come 8^th November, one of the most important elections in the Indian history will mend and break many hearts. Without doubt, this election is one of the most important, more than even the Lok Sabha 2014 as it will set many trends irrespective of which side the result falls.